17 hours ago | July 22nd, 2014 09:25:16 GMT

The battle for 1.3480 in EUR/USD – Dollar bulls at work?

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1.3479 is the low so far as the euro flopped through 1.3500 and the support is holding up for now. I’ve been banging on about the strength of this level for a while now and the importance is that if it breaks, there’s not a lot on the tech front until the low 1.3400′s

EUR/USD Weekly chart 22 07 2014

EUR/USD Weekly chart 22 07 2014

As Mike noted, a mixed bag of moves has helped the single currency lower with EUR/JPY one of the drivers on its fall through 137.00 USD/CHF has been the other one orchestrating the move too as hedge funds and real money buyers have been in as they get excited about US CPI out later. Watch the moves here as much as you do in EUR/USD as this looks to be mainly a dollar move rather than anything else and if the inflation data comes out lower then we could have quite a sharp reversal on the cards.

Update: There’s also been mention of a barrier at 1.3475 and then 1.3450. Usually the bigger ones are at the round numbers so don’t go hanging your hat on these ones

6 Comments

18 hours ago | July 22nd, 2014 09:08:26 GMT

The latest gospel according to Commerzbank

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Here’s what the analysts  at Germany’s Commerzbank are thinking right now according to a report on Rtrs

EURUSD – Has seen a slight erosion of the 2 year uptrend this week at 1.3525. It is sitting just above the 1.3476 2014 low and beyond a small rebound we look for this to be eroded. Failure here will trigger losses to 1.3426 200WMA en route to the 1.3295 November 2013 low

EURGBP – Seeing a small recovery from the base of its 2013-14 down channel at 0.7878. We have several 13 counts on the intra day charts together with Elliott wave counts to suggest this is the end of the down move for now. We do not have any indications how far this could bounce, however rebounds are expected to find initial resistance at 0.7960 ( June low) and the 0.7980 recent high. Only a close above the 4 month downtrend at 0.8009 would negate the current downside pressure*

* Is it me or does that EURGBP analyis say it will go up, or it might not ,or not just yet or…? lol. What have you tecchies out there got in your tea-leaves for this pair ?

GBPUSD – Under pressure in its range and we are viewing this as the market building a potential expanding top. The outlook remains negative while capped by 1.7205. The recent high has been accompanied by a large divergence of the daily RSI – this reflects a loss of upside momentum and overhead lays the major resistance at 1.7300-31- both of which suggest a more negative stance is required. This resistance is a combination of a Fibonacci extension and the 505 retracement at 1.7331 of the move down from the 2007 peak

EURJPY – Seeing a small rebound earlier trading around the 55 WMA which this week is located at 137.38. The recent low of 136.71 was accompanied by  a divergence of the daily RSI and we would allow for a near term rally (small).

4 Comments

18 hours ago | July 22nd, 2014 08:39:59 GMT

More from the orderboard 22 July

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USDCHF currently 0.9006 just off session highs with good demand this morning driving other pairs. More offers not far away though with bids in the dips to 0.8975

Sellers   0.9015-25 0.9040 0.9050 0.9065 0.9080 0.9100

Buyers  0.8985 0.8975 0.8960 0.8940-50 0.8910 0.8900-8890  0.8875

 

EURCHF currently 1.2148 caught in the crossfire

Sellers  1.2160 1.2185 1.2200 1.2225 1.2235-40 1.2250

Buyers  1.2135 1.2125 1.2100 1.2085 1.2050

 

USDCAD currently 1.0743 still pinned down by two-way interest

Sellers  1.0770-80 1.0790-1.0800 1.0825 1.0840-50

Buyers 1.0720 1.0700 1.0670 1.0650 1.0630 1.0610-15 1.0600 (barrier option)

 

NZDUSD currently 0.8668 just off session lows after failing to crack 0.8700 in Asia

Sellers  0.8700 0.8720 0.8740 0.8770 0.8800-10 0.8825

Buyers 0.8655-65 0.8625 0.8600

0 comments

18 hours ago | July 22nd, 2014 08:30:03 GMT

June 2014 UK PSNB 9.5bn vs 9.4bn exp m/m

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  • Prior 11.5bn. Revised to 11.9bn
  • PSNB ex fin 11.4bn vs 10.5bn exp. Prior 13.3bn. Revised to 13.7bn
  • PSNB ex royal mail 11.4bn vs 11.1bn ecp. Prior 13.3bn. Revised to 13.7bn
  • PSNCR 11.8bn vs 8.5bn prior. Revised to 8.4bn
  • Central government NCR 18.1bn vs 12.4bn prior. Revised to 12.3bn
  • Public sector net debt ex fin stands at 1.305tn or 77.3% of GDP, highest on record

The millstone around our neck are these increasing debt and borrowing levels, and this is pure fodder for the opposition Labour party

UK PSNB 22 07 2014

UK PSNB 22 07 2014

0 comments

18 hours ago | July 22nd, 2014 08:24:28 GMT

EURUSD pops 1.3500 again

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Stops triggered down to 1.3492 with larger bids noted at 1.3480-85 and more stops below there and 1.3470

EURGBP down at 0.7905 from 0.7917 chewing through bids to 0.7900

EURJPY being cited as another prime mover as fresh bids between 1.3700-10 get slapped

No key reasons for the euro’s weakness that I’m hearing, but I’d say that longs were less than impressed by the lack of rally once the equity markets opened firmer, and their drift off has given good enough  reasons to get out.

And I would add that USDCHF’s reluctance to come lower in the past few days may also have sent a signal with some good demand this morning easily taking it through offers at 0.9000 now from 0.8987 to post 0.9010 so far

8 Comments

18 hours ago | July 22nd, 2014 08:18:56 GMT

Italy’s Padoan says demand in Europe shows trend of weakening

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  • Structural reforms will take years to be felt
  • Growth policy must be center to EU legislation
  • Economic policies must be directed to investment and reforms
  • Essential for fiscal rules to be applied properly
  • Growth is harder in countries with higher debt
  • Way out of debt is to revamp growth
  • Italy implementing ambitious reform agenda
  • Fiscal flexibility can be granted in return for reforms, but consolidation must continue
  • ECB unconventional measures are very important

He’s spot on at the moment with the headline comment and the weakening in the economy we are seeing is going to test the markets patience sooner or later. We’ve still got a few months until the first TLTRO and then we’ll have to wait a few more to see if it works.

The Italian finance minister was speaking to an EU parliament committee in Brussels

 

0 comments

19 hours ago | July 22nd, 2014 07:56:01 GMT

EURGBP orders 22 July

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Currently 0.7912 drifting off as EURUSD dips to test bids between 1.3500-10

Sellers  0.7925-30 0.7940-50 0.7965 0.7975-85 0.8000-10

Buyers  0.7900-10 0.7885 0.7875 0.7850-60 0.7825-35 0.7800

0 comments

19 hours ago | July 22nd, 2014 07:52:53 GMT

EURJPY orders 22 July

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Currently 137.07 on session lows with bids right here again

Sellers  137.35 137.50 137.75 138.00-10 138.25

Buyers 137.00 136.80-90 136.70 136.50 136.25 136.00

0 comments

19 hours ago | July 22nd, 2014 07:48:24 GMT

AUDUSD orders 22 July

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Currently 0.9392 having just failed once again into 0.9400-05 having held the 0.9360 support in Asia

Sellers   0.9400-05 (stops above) 0.9415-25  0.9430-40 0.9450 0.9460-70

Buyers  0.9380 0.9350-60 0.9340 0.9330-20 0.9300 (stops below) 0.9285 0.9265 0.9250

 

0 comments

19 hours ago | July 22nd, 2014 07:33:12 GMT

USDJPY orders 22 July

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Currently 101.51

Sellers  101.60-70 101.85-90 102.00 102.20-25 102.30-40 102.50

Buyers  101.30 101.20 101.10 101.00 (stops below) 100.75 (stops below) 100.50

0 comments

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