14 hours ago | January 27th, 2015 10:24:55 GMT.

Moody’s says Greek election outcome is credit negative because it prolongs risks


Those risks being , financing, liquidity and economic growth

As we always say, markets hate uncertainty

The outcome of Sunday’s parliamentary elections in Greece throws into question the new government’s ability to renew Greece’s financial support programme with the Troika. The resulting financial uncertainty is credit negative for Greece because it intensifies the country’s refinancing and liquidity risks, undermines depositor confidence and has an adverse effect on economic growth prospects. The uncertainty will hurt Greek banks’ ability to access funding and maintain liquidity

And talking of which, and elections,  it’s only 100 days to go til the May 7 UK election!


15 hours ago | January 27th, 2015 10:16:09 GMT.

AUDUSD orders 27 Jan


Currently 0.7953 just off session highs after a strong AUDJPY-led rally to 0.7969

Sellers      0.7980-85 0.8000 08020 0.8060 0.8075-80 0.8100

Buyers    0.7920-25 0.7900 0.7880-85 0.7865 0.7850 (stops below) 0.7830 0.7800-10


15 hours ago | January 27th, 2015 10:07:45 GMT.

Swiss pairs tumble lower again


Ok, Ok, keep up at the back!

We may well have been surging higher and posting 1.0388 but we’ve now tumbled lower to 1.0189 as I type

Whatever was feeding the frenzy earlier is all of a sudden less attractive

USDCHF now 0.9019 from the 0.9169 highs

Just chatting to Ryan and we ‘re both surprised that EURUSD hasn’t fallen back further, suggesting that it has some bids of its own

If anyone has any clues about what’s going on out there this morning please feel free to enlighten the rest of us!

My gut feeling says keep buying EURCHF dips but given the thin liquidity you’ve got to give it some room to breathe once on board


15 hours ago | January 27th, 2015 10:01:04 GMT.

EURJPY orders 27 Jan


Currently 133.70 after the early fall to 132.50 and subsequent return to 133.98 in this topsy-turvy session

Offers  134.00  134.40 134.80 135.00 (stops above)

Bids  133.00 132.50 132.30 132.00 131.85 131.50 131.20 131.00


15 hours ago | January 27th, 2015 09:57:08 GMT.

USDJPY orders 27 Jan


Currently 118.14 after earlier fall to 117.85 and subsequent 360 turnaround to 118.20 from where we dropped. Offers nearby again and we know where the demand is still

Sellers   118.25-30 118.50 118.80-85 119.00 119.30 119.50 119.80-85 120.00

Buyers   118.00 117.85  117.50-60 117.25  117.00 116.85 116.50


15 hours ago | January 27th, 2015 09:51:56 GMT.

EURUSD orders 27 Jan


Currently 1.1318 after EURCHF-led surge to 1.1346 baulking at the offers I highlighted yesterday and still there today

Offers  1.1345-50 1.1380 1.1400-10 (stops above) 1.1430 1.1450

Bids   1.1300  1.1280 1.1240-50 1.1220-25 1.1200 1.1185 1.1160 1.1130 1.1100 1.1085 1.1050


15 hours ago | January 27th, 2015 09:33:57 GMT.

ONS says “it’s too early to say” if there is a general UK economic slowdown


Office for National Statistics chief economist expressing some caution on the disappointing flash UK Q4 GDP data

Full release here

GBPUSD has had a look below 1.5060 and EURGBP doesn’t appeared to have triggered any stops above 0.7512 yet so all in the balance still

I said in my preview that the downside risk  was probably factored in

GBPUSD currently 1.5069 EURGBP 0.7504


15 hours ago | January 27th, 2015 09:30:03 GMT.

Q4 2014 UK GDP flash 0.5% vs 0.6% exp q/q


  • Prior 0.7%
  • 2.7% vs 2.8% exp. Prior 2.6%
  • Q4 services 0.8% vs 0.8% in Q3
  • Manufacturing 0.1% vs 0.3% prior q/q
  • Electricity, gas & steam -2.8% vs +2.8% prior q/q
  • Full 2014 GDP 2.6% vs 1.7% in 2013

Lower than expected but in and around the levels the market was expected. The ONS says that it’s too early to tell if there is a general slowdown of the economy. The services numbers for December would have put pay to any thoughts that a late rally in other parts of the economy would have been enough to keep GDP afloat. We know manufacturing hasn’t been hot all year but construction has seen the biggest drop since Q2 2012, -1.8% vs +1.6% prior.

GBP/USD has lost around 30 pips to 1.5060 and we’ll see if the numbers are worse enough to drive rate hike expectations further back.

UK Q4 2014 GDP details 27 01 2015

UK Q4 2014 GDP details 27 01 2015

UK Q4 GDP y/y 27 01 2015

UK Q4 GDP y/y 27 01 2015



15 hours ago | January 27th, 2015 09:24:26 GMT.

EURGBP orders 27 Jan


Currently 0.7495 just off the euro demand-led rally to 0.7507

Sellers  0.7500-10 (stops above) 0.7530 0.7550-55 0.7575-80 0.7600

Buyers  0.7450-60 0.7425-30 0.7400


16 hours ago | January 27th, 2015 09:20:51 GMT.

GBPUSD orders 27 Jan


Currently 1.5090 treading water as we wait for UK Q4 GDP

Sellers   1.5120-25 1.5150 1.5165 1.5180-85 5 1.5200-10 (stops above) 1.5225 1.5250

Buyers    1.5070 1.5050 1.5035 1.5000 1.4980-85 1.4950-60 1.4935 1.4900-10 1.4885 1.4865 1.4850 (stops below)

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