Those risks being , financing, liquidity and economic growth
As we always say, markets hate uncertainty
The outcome of Sunday’s parliamentary elections in Greece throws into question the new government’s ability to renew Greece’s financial support programme with the Troika. The resulting financial uncertainty is credit negative for Greece because it intensifies the country’s refinancing and liquidity risks, undermines depositor confidence and has an adverse effect on economic growth prospects. The uncertainty will hurt Greek banks’ ability to access funding and maintain liquidity
And talking of which, and elections, it’s only 100 days to go til the May 7 UK election!
Currently 0.7953 just off session highs after a strong AUDJPY-led rally to 0.7969
Sellers 0.7980-85 0.8000 08020 0.8060 0.8075-80 0.8100
Buyers 0.7920-25 0.7900 0.7880-85 0.7865 0.7850 (stops below) 0.7830 0.7800-10
Ok, Ok, keep up at the back!
We may well have been surging higher and posting 1.0388 but we’ve now tumbled lower to 1.0189 as I type
Whatever was feeding the frenzy earlier is all of a sudden less attractive
USDCHF now 0.9019 from the 0.9169 highs
Just chatting to Ryan and we ‘re both surprised that EURUSD hasn’t fallen back further, suggesting that it has some bids of its own
If anyone has any clues about what’s going on out there this morning please feel free to enlighten the rest of us!
My gut feeling says keep buying EURCHF dips but given the thin liquidity you’ve got to give it some room to breathe once on board
Currently 133.70 after the early fall to 132.50 and subsequent return to 133.98 in this topsy-turvy session
Offers 134.00 134.40 134.80 135.00 (stops above)
Bids 133.00 132.50 132.30 132.00 131.85 131.50 131.20 131.00
Currently 118.14 after earlier fall to 117.85 and subsequent 360 turnaround to 118.20 from where we dropped. Offers nearby again and we know where the demand is still
Sellers 118.25-30 118.50 118.80-85 119.00 119.30 119.50 119.80-85 120.00
Buyers 118.00 117.85 117.50-60 117.25 117.00 116.85 116.50
Currently 1.1318 after EURCHF-led surge to 1.1346 baulking at the offers I highlighted yesterday and still there today
Offers 1.1345-50 1.1380 1.1400-10 (stops above) 1.1430 1.1450
Bids 1.1300 1.1280 1.1240-50 1.1220-25 1.1200 1.1185 1.1160 1.1130 1.1100 1.1085 1.1050
Office for National Statistics chief economist expressing some caution on the disappointing flash UK Q4 GDP data
Full release here
GBPUSD has had a look below 1.5060 and EURGBP doesn’t appeared to have triggered any stops above 0.7512 yet so all in the balance still
I said in my preview that the downside risk was probably factored in
GBPUSD currently 1.5069 EURGBP 0.7504
- Prior 0.7%
- 2.7% vs 2.8% exp. Prior 2.6%
- Q4 services 0.8% vs 0.8% in Q3
- Manufacturing 0.1% vs 0.3% prior q/q
- Electricity, gas & steam -2.8% vs +2.8% prior q/q
- Full 2014 GDP 2.6% vs 1.7% in 2013
Lower than expected but in and around the levels the market was expected. The ONS says that it’s too early to tell if there is a general slowdown of the economy. The services numbers for December would have put pay to any thoughts that a late rally in other parts of the economy would have been enough to keep GDP afloat. We know manufacturing hasn’t been hot all year but construction has seen the biggest drop since Q2 2012, -1.8% vs +1.6% prior.
GBP/USD has lost around 30 pips to 1.5060 and we’ll see if the numbers are worse enough to drive rate hike expectations further back.
UK Q4 2014 GDP details 27 01 2015
UK Q4 GDP y/y 27 01 2015
Currently 0.7495 just off the euro demand-led rally to 0.7507
00-10 (stops above) 0.7530 0.7550-55 0.7575-80 0.7600
Buyers 0.7450-60 0.7425-30 0.7400
Currently 1.5090 treading water as we wait for UK Q4 GDP
Sellers 1.5120-25 1.5150 1.5165 1.5180-85 5 1.5200-10 (stops above) 1.5225 1.5250
Buyers 1.5070 1.5050 1.5035 1.5000 1.4980-85 1.4950-60 1.4935 1.4900-10 1.4885 1.4865 1.4850 (stops below)
Founded in 2008, ForexLive.com is the premier forex trading news site offering interesting commentary, opinion and analysis for true FX trading professionals. Get the latest breaking foreign exchange trade news and current updates from active traders daily. ForexLive.com blog posts feature leading edge technical analysis charting tips, forex analysis, and currency pair trading tutorials.
Find out how to take advantage of swings in global foreign exchange markets and see our real-time forex news analysis and reactions to central bank news, economic indicators and world events.
Our authors have years of experience in financial markets and provide diverse, thought-provoking updates relating to news about global macro events and the worldwide forex economic calendar, with frequently updated content that is educational for traders at all levels from beginner to novice that can help traders make better decisions about forex trading.
Our forex news focuses on G10 events, macroeconomic indicators, major equities indexes, treasury and bond yields from around the world, politics as it relates to forex trading and news from the FOMC as well as global central banks in, Europe and Asia.
Learn More About The Forex Live Authors Here and Follow us on Twitter, Facebook & Google+