1.3479 is the low so far as the euro flopped through 1.3500 and the support is holding up for now. I’ve been banging on about the strength of this level for a while now and the importance is that if it breaks, there’s not a lot on the tech front until the low 1.3400′s
EUR/USD Weekly chart 22 07 2014
As Mike noted, a mixed bag of moves has helped the single currency lower with EUR/JPY one of the drivers on its fall through 137.00 USD/CHF has been the other one orchestrating the move too as hedge funds and real money buyers have been in as they get excited about US CPI out later. Watch the moves here as much as you do in EUR/USD as this looks to be mainly a dollar move rather than anything else and if the inflation data comes out lower then we could have quite a sharp reversal on the cards.
Update: There’s also been mention of a barrier at 1.3475 and then 1.3450. Usually the bigger ones are at the round numbers so don’t go hanging your hat on these ones
Here’s what the analysts at Germany’s Commerzbank are thinking right now according to a report on Rtrs
EURUSD – Has seen a slight erosion of the 2 year uptrend this week at 1.3525. It is sitting just above the 1.3476 2014 low and beyond a small rebound we look for this to be eroded. Failure here will trigger losses to 1.3426 200WMA en route to the 1.3295 November 2013 low
EURGBP – Seeing a small recovery from the base of its 2013-14 down channel at 0.7878. We have several 13 counts on the intra day charts together with Elliott wave counts to suggest this is the end of the down move for now. We do not have any indications how far this could bounce, however rebounds are expected to find initial resistance at 0.7960 ( June low) and the 0.7980 recent high. Only a close above the 4 month downtrend at 0.8009 would negate the current downside pressure*
* Is it me or does that EURGBP analyis say it will go up, or it might not ,or not just yet or…? lol. What have you tecchies out there got in your tea-leaves for this pair ?
GBPUSD – Under pressure in its range and we are viewing this as the market building a potential expanding top. The outlook remains negative while capped by 1.7205. The recent high has been accompanied by a large divergence of the daily RSI – this reflects a loss of upside momentum and overhead lays the major resistance at 1.7300-31- both of which suggest a more negative stance is required. This resistance is a combination of a Fibonacci extension and the 505 retracement at 1.7331 of the move down from the 2007 peak
EURJPY – Seeing a small rebound earlier trading around the 55 WMA which this week is located at 137.38. The recent low of 136.71 was accompanied by a divergence of the daily RSI and we would allow for a near term rally (small).
USDCHF currently 0.9006 just off session highs with good demand this morning driving other pairs. More offers not far away though with bids in the dips to 0.8975
Sellers 0.9015-25 0.9040 0.9050 0.9065 0.9080 0.9100
Buyers 0.8985 0.8975 0.8960 0.8940-50 0.8910 0.8900-8890 0.8875
EURCHF currently 1.2148 caught in the crossfire
Sellers 1.2160 1.2185 1.2200 1.2225 1.2235-40 1.2250
Buyers 1.2135 1.2125 1.2100 1.2085 1.2050
USDCAD currently 1.0743 still pinned down by two-way interest
Sellers 1.0770-80 1.0790-1.0800 1.0825 1.0840-50
Buyers 1.0720 1.0700 1.0670 1.0650 1.0630 1.0610-15 1.0600 (barrier option)
NZDUSD currently 0.8668 just off session lows after failing to crack 0.8700 in Asia
Sellers 0.8700 0.8720 0.8740 0.8770 0.8800-10 0.8825
Buyers 0.8655-65 0.8625 0.8600
- Prior 11.5bn. Revised to 11.9bn
- PSNB ex fin 11.4bn vs 10.5bn exp. Prior 13.3bn. Revised to 13.7bn
- PSNB ex royal mail 11.4bn vs 11.1bn ecp. Prior 13.3bn. Revised to 13.7bn
- PSNCR 11.8bn vs 8.5bn prior. Revised to 8.4bn
- Central government NCR 18.1bn vs 12.4bn prior. Revised to 12.3bn
- Public sector net debt ex fin stands at 1.305tn or 77.3% of GDP, highest on record
The millstone around our neck are these increasing debt and borrowing levels, and this is pure fodder for the opposition Labour party
UK PSNB 22 07 2014
Stops triggered down to 1.3492 with larger bids noted at 1.3480-85 and more stops below there and 1.3470
EURGBP down at 0.7905 from 0.7917 chewing through bids to 0.7900
EURJPY being cited as another prime mover as fresh bids between 1.3700-10 get slapped
No key reasons for the euro’s weakness that I’m hearing, but I’d say that longs were less than impressed by the lack of rally once the equity markets opened firmer, and their drift off has given good enough reasons to get out.
And I would add that USDCHF’s reluctance to come lower in the past few days may also have sent a signal with some good demand this morning easily taking it through offers at 0.9000 now from 0.8987 to post 0.9010 so far
- Structural reforms will take years to be felt
- Growth policy must be center to EU legislation
- Economic policies must be directed to investment and reforms
- Essential for fiscal rules to be applied properly
- Growth is harder in countries with higher debt
- Way out of debt is to revamp growth
- Italy implementing ambitious reform agenda
- Fiscal flexibility can be granted in return for reforms, but consolidation must continue
- ECB unconventional measures are very important
He’s spot on at the moment with the headline comment and the weakening in the economy we are seeing is going to test the markets patience sooner or later. We’ve still got a few months until the first TLTRO and then we’ll have to wait a few more to see if it works.
The Italian finance minister was speaking to an EU parliament committee in Brussels
Currently 0.7912 drifting off as EURUSD dips to test bids between 1.3500-10
Sellers 0.7925-30 0.7940-50 0.7965 0.7975-85 0.8000-10
Buyers 0.7900-10 0.7885 0.7875 0.7850-60 0.7825-35 0.7800
Currently 137.07 on session lows with bids right here again
Sellers 137.35 137.50 137.75 138.00-10 138.25
Buyers 137.00 136.80-90 136.70 136.50 136.25 136.00
Currently 0.9392 having just failed once again into 0.9400-05 having held the 0.9360 support in Asia
Sellers 0.9400-05 (stops above) 0.9415-25 0.9430-40 0.9450 0.9460-70
Buyers 0.9380 0.9350-60 0.9340 0.9330-20 0.9300 (stops below) 0.9285 0.9265 0.9250
Sellers 101.60-70 101.85-90 102.00 102.20-25 102.30-40 102.50
Buyers 101.30 101.20 101.10 101.00 (stops below) 100.75 (stops below) 100.50
Founded in 2008, ForexLive.com is the premier forex trading news site offering interesting commentary, opinion and analysis for true FX trading professionals. Get the latest breaking foreign exchange trade news and current updates from active traders daily. ForexLive.com blog posts feature leading edge technical analysis charting tips, forex analysis, and currency pair trading tutorials.
Find out how to take advantage of swings in global foreign exchange markets and see our real-time forex news analysis and reactions to central bank news, economic indicators and world events.
Our authors have years of experience in financial markets and provide diverse, thought-provoking updates relating to news about global macro events and the worldwide forex economic calendar, with frequently updated content that is educational for traders at all levels from beginner to novice that can help traders make better decisions about forex trading.
Our forex news focuses on G10 events, macroeconomic indicators, major equities indexes, treasury and bond yields from around the world, politics as it relates to forex trading and news from the FOMC as well as global central banks in, Europe and Asia.
Learn More About The Forex Live Authors Here and Follow us on Twitter, Facebook & Google+