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Morning all…

Apologies for the lack of coverage this morning but i had commitments and Gerry’s got the day off.

Doesn’t look like  a whole lot’s going on as market waits for headlines.

The marginally weaker Swiss CPI  has had little impact but does seem to  back up SNB’s belief that the cap is necessary and  wouldn’t be surprised to see some comments emerge from the Swiss authorities  if we start heading lower again.

EUR/USD’s looking rather rangey, and have heard from some sources that an ACB may be sitting on the bid under 1.3250 but i can’t confirm this from my usual bank sources.

On the order front i’ll try and knock up an order board shortly, but in the meantime  there’s talk of stops down through 1.3230 with bids infront around 1.3235/40. Offers are up at 1.3290/00 and there are expiries at 1.3300.

 

 

Swiss Jan CPI -0.4% m/m, -0.8% y/y

vs expectations of -0.3% and -0.7%

Surprisingly muted reaction with EUR/CHF sitting unchanged just above 1.2100

 

Today’s data…

Main focus will likely be  the Swiss Jan CPI release at 0815GMT which could have some serious implications for the SNB’s EUR/CHF peg.

After that there’s the Jan UK PPI release at 0930GMT

NY focus will be on the Dec trade balance at 1330GMT and the Michigan consumer sentiment at 1455GMT

Gerry’s off today and i’ll be along a little later

EUR/USD expiries

Fairly sizeable expiries reported around 1.3300, NY cut, which should ensure plenty of range trading.

ForexLive Asian market wrap: AUD falls on slowdowns in Chinese trade

• Chinese imports, led by iron ore, fell sharply in January, by over 15% compared with last year
• Chinese exports were also lower than expected at -0.5%
• The trade surplus increased sharply on the lower imports, $27.3 billion
• The Q4 current account surplus was just under $60 billion
• PBOC fixed the USD/CNY mid-rate at a new record low, 6.2937
• RBA released its quarterly monetary policy statement
• Policy is appropriate, growth expected to be steady at around 3.5% but much depends on continued strong growth in commodity/mining
• Japanese domestic CGPI +0.5% YoY
• Greek FinMin gives his view on ongoing talks with Troika, PSI
• Regional markets -0.5% on average
• Gold $1734/oz; Oil $99.50/bbl

The AUD has been the main mover today, losing ground across the board and falling by almost 1 cent against the USD after Chinese trade data showed a marked slowing particularly in the importation of iron ore. The RBA earlier in the day had predicated their forecasts on continued strong mining investment and if these Chinese import figures are confirmed, Australian rate cuts will be back on the cards. AUD/USD stalled for a lengthy period ahead of previous lows at 1.0730 but that level has now broken in afternoon trade. Ranges: 1.0703/93

EUR/USD has fallen in sympathy with the AUD/USD, but EUR/AUD buying has given it a lift. Bids at 1.3260 have been filled in afternoon trade. There have been no fresh Greece-related headlines with negotiations set to continue to cut another EUR300 million off the budget and to reach a deal with PSI. Ranges: 1.3257/91

USD/JPY was not able to add to overnight momentum and has traded sideways in a 77.53/75 range.

Cable 1.5785/1.5819; EUR/CHF 1.2105/15

EUR/USD bids holding firm at 1.3260, for now at least

Bids at 1.3260 are holding firm for now but dealers tell me that the amounts aren’t overly large and those stops below 1.3240 may well get triggered in early European trade.

ANZ raises Australian variable mortgage rate by 6bps

This is what I was talking about on Tuesday, that the Big 4 are trying to separate their mortgage policy from what the RBA does. My feeling on Tuesday was that part of the reason that the RBA didn’t cut rates as expected, was that they thought the banks may not pass on the changes to customers.

ANZ has been the first to move, dipping their toes in the water with only a 6bps rate rise.

AUD under pressure after Chinese trade data; if confirmed then Australian interest rates will fall fast

Imports into China crumbled in January with iron ore one of the big casualities. The RBA were quite specific this morning in their quarterly bulletin, that many of their forecasts were predicated on continued strong commodity markets. If this slowdown in Chinese demand is confirmed over the next few months, then the RBA will be cutting rates by a lot more than 25bps.

AUD/USD stop-loss orders triggered below 1.0725

Not much follow through so far, with lows at 1.0720 reported.

EUR/USD orders

• Solid sell orders 1.3320/30
• Bids reported starting at 1.3260
• Stop-loss sell orders starting below 1.3240

Looks like we might have another few range bound sessions ahead of us.