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Nikkei opens +0.5%, Kospi +1%
NZD consolidating after lower than expected CPI
The recent moves in the NZD have been more about major flows rather than interest rate expectations, nevertheless the much lower than expected number (-0.3% QoQ Vs +0.4%) will be giving AUD/NZD bears some cause for reflection. The market had fairly limited expectations of any NZ rate moves this year, and overall NZ rates are not expected to fall by anymore than 25 bps with Australian rates expected to fall by 50/75 bps. This number might change these expectations.
NZD/USD fell from .8070 to .8020 in the wake of the numbers and is now consolidating around the half-way mark of this fall.
Trade Idea Central, January 19th
If you’d like to share your trading ideas with others, please keep them in this thread.
Brazil’s central bank lowers rates by 50bps to 10.5%
Fears rise over two of Europe’s biggest banks
More from the FT-online on fears that Commerzsabank and MPS will fail to produce adequate plans to plug capital shortfalls bt Friday’s deadline. This could be EUR/USD bearish, especially ahead of technical resistance mentioned below.
ForexLive Asian market open: EUR/USD testing important technical resistance
There is a previous daily low at 1.2855, (which is also an historical weekly low), the 20-day MA comes in at 1.2865 and there are hourly highs at 1.2880. In a strong downtrend like we currently have, these resistance levels should be respected. On the other hand, there are likely to be heavy macro stop-loss buy orders above 1.2900.
Asia has been keen to buy EUR this week but I somehow doubt if the momentum will be strong enough to take us above 1.2900; maybe I’ll be surprised.
The Australian empoyment number is the main risk event on the economic calendar.
Good luck today.
New Zealand Q4 CPI -0.3% QoQ (+0.4% expected)
ForexLive North American wrap: The IMF wants more money; don’t we all?
- IMF hoping to raise $600B in new funds; US not interested in contributing
- Greece fin min: haircut deal by the weekend likely
- US nears deal to give 1m homeowners principal writedown
- Monti forecasts 5% surplus in 2013
- Greece threatens bond holdouts with punitive laws
- NAHB housing market index hits highest since June 2007
- Industrial production +0.4% vs +0.5% exp, underlying numbers better
- US PPI -0.1% m/m vs +0.1% exp
- BOC’s Carney: CDN housing overvalued in some cases, hikes inflation forecasts
- Carney: European recession to last four quarters
- ECB’s Weidmann: German growth to be flatish in Q1, pickup later
- ECB’s
- US rejects US-Canadian Keystone pipeline
- European stocks mixed; DAX +0.3%, Spain -1.4%
- S&P500 +1.1% to 1307
- CHF and EUR were the top performers, USD and JPY trailed
The euro climbed throughout the session but it was a choppy grind. EUR/USD spent almost the entire session above 1.28 but continually ran into offers at 1.2860.
The IMF headlines sparked the first run higher and then news that Greece is nearing a deal triggered the second leg.
The underlying story was of funds covering medium-term EUR shorts on a number of crosses. Large orders in GBP, AUD and CAD prompted spikes at varying times.
Trading in EUR/CHF was adventurous. A fat finger triggered a 50 pip jump to 1.2130 and fears of intervention. When confirmation came of the errant bid, it plunged to new lows at 1.2070.
US gold coin sales surging in January
The US mint has released some data on gold coin sales so far in January with 106,000 oz. sold already in the month. At that pace it would be the best month since July 2010 and up 200% from December.
Interestingly, gold put in a significant rally the last time interest was so high. A bit more detailed comparison of coin sales and prices shows surges tend to be a decent indicator of gains.
State Dept confirms Keystone permit denied
There is lots of speculation they will be allowed to reapply with a slightly different route. The politics never end.
Update: Canada’s PM told Obama it will seek to diversify energy exports (hello China) but both parties left the door open to a new bid.
Market Talk
Van Rompuy says EU to tell G20 that Greece should stay in euroThe EU has published a letter European Council President Van Rompuy regarding the G20 meeting in June....
CFTC: Euro shorts hit fresh recordIn the Commitments of Traders report: EUR short 195K vs 174K last week JPY short 18K vs 34K prior AUD...
Stocks limping into the weekendThe S&P 500 has fallen to a session low, down 6 points to 1314. Risk assets are following it lower. Share...
Economics
University of Michigan consumer snetiment index 79.3 vs 77.8 forecastMost useless number of the month, in my view, as it correlates with nothing. Not retail sales, not GDP… Risk-on...
French consumer confidence 90 in MayUp from upwardly revised 89 in April (prev 88) Share and Enjoy: Read More →
German Gfk June consumer sentiment indicator steady at 5.7From upwardly revised 5.7 in May (prev 5.6) Slightly better than Reuter’s median forecast of 5.6. Share...
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