22 minutes ago | September 18th, 2014 11:15:47 GMT

ForexLive European morning wrap: The rollercoaster ride continues as Scotland starts to vote

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Forex trading headlines from the European morning session 18 Sept

 News:

Data:

The pound had a sharp rally early on sending GBPUSD above 1.6320 from 1.6280 and EURGBP down through 0.7900 to 0.7885 but then we saw a move back to where we started only to see a slow grind higher, albeit with a dip or two, until a recent poll release saw another rally. Expect more of the same

USDCHF and EURCHF saw sharp falls to 0.9365 and 1.2067 after the SNB left rates and cap on hold but we’ve rallied a little since aLbeit unconvincingly so far

USDJPY had a quick run up to 108.88 on stronger Nikkei but has drifted off but yen pairs still look well supported while USDCAD has retreated from the o/n rally to 1.1025 to post 1.0973 so far

AUD

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51 minutes ago | September 18th, 2014 10:46:55 GMT

Latest Scottish poll has the No vote on 53%

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The IPSOS-Mori poll  for London’s Evening Standard just released has No on 53% and Yes on 47% suggesting a slightly wider gap

Exit polls today though will be the main focus but GBPUSD has rallied to 1.6336 EURGBP down to 0.7884

More poll detail here for those who have suddenly lost the ability to press a search button…

For me the key is the 4% undecided stat.. that’s around 172,000 voters who have yet to decide

And one vote gets the nod

In or Out? - The nation decides

In or Out? – The nation decides

12 Comments

1 hour ago | September 18th, 2014 10:00:04 GMT

September 2014 UK CBI industrial trends orders -4 vs 9 exp

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  • Prior 11
  • Export orders -24 vs -3 prior
  • Selling prices +1 vs -1 exp. Prior -1
  • 3m output 27 vs 31 prior

Not good reading at all, though the pound is more tied up in the Scotland vote I feel.

It’s not all bad though as the balance who saw a rise in output over the prior 3 months rose to 15 from 12 but it’s forward looking that is the worry with that export order balance falling below the long running -20 average. Nothing to note on prices though.

“Against a backdrop of acute political uncertainty at home and abroad, exports orders for UK manufacturers are faltering, which is disappointing. However, it’s encouraging that output growth has remained solid and firms expect production to rise strongly in the next quarter.” Said Katja Hall at the CBI

UK CBI industrial trends survey 18 09 2014

UK CBI industrial trends survey 18 09 2014

 

5 Comments

1 hour ago | September 18th, 2014 09:41:17 GMT

More from the orderboard 18 Sept

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USDCHF currently 0.9381 after the post-SNB dip to 0.9367 from 0.9420

Sellers  0.9400-10 0.9420-30 0.9455-65 0.9480 0.9500

Buyers  0.9340 0.9320-25  0.9300 0.9280-85 0.9240 0.9200-10

 

EURCHF currently steady at 1.2077  having posted lows of 1.2064

Sellers 1.2100-10 1.2125 1.2135 1.2150 1.2165 1.2185 1.2200

Buyers  1.2060-65 1.2040-50 1.2020 1.2000 (SNB CHF cap)

 

USDCAD currently 1.0992 having capped at 1.1025 offers/res

Sellers  1.1000 1.1025-35 1.1050 1.1075-85 1.1100 1.1125 1.1140-50

Buyers 1.0975 1.0940-50  1.0925-35 1.0900-10 1.0885 1.0850

 

NZDUSD currently 0.8123 having failed to hold above 0.8200

Sellers 0.8150 0.8175 0.8200 0.8225 0.8250

Buyers 0.8100 0.8085 0.8065 0.8050

0 comments

1 hour ago | September 18th, 2014 09:40:19 GMT

Here comes the Jordan patter after SNB sits on its hands

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  • Franc remains highly valued
  • Cap key for ensuring adequate conditions
  • Will take further measures as needed
  • Risk of deflation has increased
  • Watching question of Scotland currency
  • Scotland vote a source of new insecurity (not another one. Last night it was someone asking Yellen)

Nothing new here that we haven’t heard before or didn’t know. The SNB are keeping monetary policy as is but they are still primed. As we know from previous experience they prefer to go for shock and awe rather than make a move when everyone is expecting it. Fair play to them as it keeps everyone on their toes.

1 Comment

2 hours ago | September 18th, 2014 09:25:29 GMT

Option expiries 10am NY cut 18 Sept

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  • USDJPY 107.00 (USD 1.1bln) 107.50 (USD 320m) 108.00 (USD 490m)
  • EURUSD 1.2800 1.2850 (EUR 1.87 bln) 1.2900 (EUR 970m) 1.2950 (EUR 370m) 1.3000 (EUR 1.1bln 1.3025-30 (EUR 618m) 1.3050 (EUR 767m)
  • GBPUSD 1.6200 1.6300 1.6350 1.6400 (GBP 625m)
  • USDCHF 0.9150 (USD 515m) 0.9350 (USD 420m)
  • AUDUSD  0.8900 (AUD 750m) 0.8950 0.9000 (AUD 587m) 0.9050 (AUD 400m) 0.9100 (AUD 1 bln)
  • USDCAD 1.0900 (USD 492m) 1.0940 1.1000 (EUR 456m) 1.1050 (USD 320m)
  • EURCHF 1.2090 1.2150
  • EURGBP 0.7875 0.7940 0.7975 0.8000

0 comments

2 hours ago | September 18th, 2014 09:20:46 GMT

Banks take €82.6bn in ECB TLTRO funds

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That’s probably a little on the low side but the reaction in the euro looks uncertain as it filp flops between 1.2880 and 1.2908.

It’s difficult to make a call on this news. Does it mean there’s no demand from the economy, or that banks are suitably financed so they don’t need it?

Given that they are still paying off the LTRO’s it suggests that they have enough finances and don’t necessarily need the extra money.

What we will need to look out for is that there may be some banks that still have problems and are using this to help solve them. We’ll have to wait for that to come out in the stress tests.

Another point, and there will be many more no doubt, is that if there is a low take up it could well speed up the ABS program to come online and bring forward expectations on QE.

Lots in the mix but for now there’s no move in FX.

 

6 Comments

2 hours ago | September 18th, 2014 09:14:52 GMT

Good signs that folks in the UK are splashing out while inflationary pressures are kept in check

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As Yohay pointed out in the comments (he’s good you know, you should check his site out forexcrunch.com) average shop prices fell 1.2% on the year and was the largest fall since Oct 2001. Falls at the petrol pumps (-5.0%) was the main driver while food store prices fell 0.1%, the first annual fall since Dec 2004. The fall in fuel prices is always welcome, especially when it costs me nearly 90 sheets to fill the car up, but the fall in shop prices suggests that there’s still some lack of confidence that higher prices can be passed on to shoppers in the long term.

That might change however, as the UK looks to be going on a bit of a spending spree and kitting out their houses. The quantity bought in household goods stores rose 12.7% on the year which is the biggest increase since Oct 2001. Furniture stores were the biggest beneficiaries with sales up 23.4% and the largest growth since records started in 1988. When finances are tight people put off spending out on new stuff for their homes, the new sofa can last a bit longer and the dining room table has still got some life in it, but when the money situation brightens then people are more confident and will splash the cash.

The only caveats to that is that we hope that the old credit card hasn’t been pulled out the back of the draw to pay for it and that the high amount of sales haven’t come via big sales with heavy discounting.

We’ll find out if that has happened in due course though.

All in all it was a steady report, and they can often be volatile, so as long as we start to see a steady trend up it’s another tick in the “good” column for the UK economy.

EU vacuum ban

Getting in before the EU ban. There’s no flies on us here in the UK

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