1 hour ago | December 19th, 2014 00:21:14 GMT.

Australian dollar: Nomura on what the RBA needs to see for a rate cut


Nomura says:

  • It sees both the RBA and RBNZ on hold all through 2015

Nomura tempers it somewhat with the comment that the RBA are more likely to cut :

  • if the housing market cools
  • the labour market deteriorates further
  • and inflationary pressures do not tick up
  • and commodity prices remain weak

(This from a client research note issued on Thursday)

Actually, I posted a very nice piece from Annette Beacher at TD Securities on the signposts to watch to see whether the next move is up or down for the RBA cash rate … here: What does the RBA need to see for a rate cut? Or … what do they need to hike?

(And also, check this out from just a few hours ago on … how the SNB decision to slip in negative rate territory might impact on the RBA and AUD)



2 hours ago | December 19th, 2014 00:05:07 GMT.

UK data – GfK Consumer Confidence for December: -4 (expected is -1)


UK GfK Consumer Confidence for December comes in at -4,

  • expected -1
  • prior was -2

Comments from the GfK Consumer Confidence:

  • UK consumers are increasingly worried about the outlook for the economy
  • But are more confident about their own financial situation
  • The measure has trended lower since August, despite rising pay, supermarket price wars and rapidly falling petrol pump prices


2 hours ago | December 19th, 2014 00:00:04 GMT.

New Zealand ANZ Business confidence for December: 30.4 (prior was 31.5)


New Zealand data for:

ANZ Business confidence for December, 30.4

ANZ Activity Outlook for December, 37.3

  • prior was 41.7

Inflation expectations nearly unchanged at 2.13%

ANZ comments on the data:

  • Says the economy “has been in a sweet spot for some time now”
  • Growth is solid
  • Inflation has remained tame
  • Which means that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand “party police” have been content to let things run



2 hours ago | December 18th, 2014 23:38:04 GMT.

What’s Russian for “bail-out?”


Via the Washington Post, commenting on Russian president’s Vladimir Putin’s press conference (overnight Asian time):

  • The latest news is that Russia’s banks are going to need a bailout, and soon. The interest rate they charge each other on short-term loans—which shows how much they believe in each other’s solvency—shot up to 28.3 percent on Thursday, higher than it was even during the 2008 crisis.

As if that’s not bad enough … how about this to pique your interest?

  • Russian banks can stop marking their losses to market, and use the old exchange rate to calculate the “value” of the assets on their books.


More at the Post


2 hours ago | December 18th, 2014 23:10:24 GMT.

French President Hollande: Might hope for lower EUR, but approaching equilibrium


French President Francois Hollande:

  • Says we might hope for lower euro but we are fast approaching a point of equilibrium

There have been plenty of comments coming after the one-day EU summit today (I had some of them earlier but soon drowned in verbiage … here is a run-down from AP via the UK’s Daily Mail … if you’re anything like me you will want to click away quickly after reading before becoming too engrossed in the ‘Don’t miss’ column down the right of page).

Posting this one because its obvious direct FX implications. Whether he is right or not, though …. ???

The headline crossed on Bloomberg and Reuters


3 hours ago | December 18th, 2014 22:44:35 GMT.

Nigerian central bank’s FX trading restrictions


Nigeria is Africa’s largest exporter of crude oil. The oil price falls have exposed vulnerabilities in the country (its government, for example, earns around 80% of its revenue from oil).

Nigeria’s currency, the naira, is under pressure and the central bank has imposed trading restrictions:

  • has banned dealers from depositing their currency-trading funds overnight, preventing them from after-hours trading and placing bets for or against a single currency at the close of a trading session
  • The move is temporary, according to Olakanmi Gbadamosi, director of the central bank’s trade and exchange department.

More at the Wall Street Journal (may be gated): Nigeria’s Central Bank Restricts Currency Trading to Prop Up Naira


3 hours ago | December 18th, 2014 22:17:30 GMT.

UK PM Cameron: Says sanctions on Russia must be maintained


UK PM Cameron:

  • Says sanctions on Russia must be maintained
  • Door open to Russia if it changes behaviour

Also comments from German Chancellor Merkel:

  • Welcomes EU investment program

and so on…

EU President Tusk (Donald Tusk, former PM of Poland, now President of the European union):

  • Says EU leaders want EU315bn fund in place by June
  • Investment projects must be firmed up



3 hours ago | December 18th, 2014 22:08:57 GMT.

New Zealand data – migrant arrivals 2nd highest recorded


From Statistics New Zealand this morning:

  • New Zealand had a seasonally adjusted net gain (more arrivals than departures) of 5,000 migrants in November 2014
  • This is the second-highest net gain ever recorded – just below the net gain of 5,200 recorded in October 2014.
  • Monthly net gains increased over the last year, mainly due to more arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens
  • In the November 2014 year, New Zealand recorded its highest-ever net gain of 49,800 migrants

Strong migration numbers have implications for Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy:

  • Concerns about strong immigration are the main reason behind the Reserve Bank’s decision not to ease controversial home lending rules.
  • Governor Wheeler warned that there were still risks of a resurgence in the housing market, pointing out that over the last two years migration figures had consistently been stronger than expected. 

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