He’s only been in the job five minutes and he’ already had a confidence vote? And yes, the headline is tongue in cheek.
Apparently so and it was over his involvement in Luxembourg’s tax affairs while PM
Anyway, he’s won the vote by 461/101 so he now carries on doing whatever it is he does.
Junker to carry on
- Investor complacency in hunt for yield could result in financial stability risks
- Public debt sustainability challenges remain
- Property market developments frothy and vulnerable to a correction
- Sees risk in sluggish bank profitability amid weak growth
These are details from the eCB’s financial stability report, which is being accompanied by comments form Vitor Constancio
You can fill your boots with the details of the review here
- emerging market debt most at risk from Fed policy
- market optimism doesn’t reflect economic outlook
Market optimism ? What’s he been reading/taking ?!
- financial stress in eurozone remains very low
- inflation objectives override all other goals
- geo-political factors could trigger risk reversal
- doesn’t see overvaluation on corp debt and equities
- high-yield govt debt may be overvalues
- regulators must be more alert on shadow banking
ECB vice-president speaking in FFT on the Financial Stability Review
Constancio pulling another happy face
Yesterday I reported on three occasions about the good demand on EURGBP into 0.7900 which was capping GBPUSD on its move up through 1.5750, but noted the pair looked bid overall
Well, we saw a move higher through 1.5800 eventually on weaker US data and then to 1.5826 this morning before turning lower after once again drawing traders into a false sense of security.
We’re now back below 1.5750 after a previous attempt saw a bounce back to 1.5771 and with EURGBP back to 0.7920 after failing at 0.7905. Bids on cable next into 1.5735. Offers on EURGBP at 0.7925-30
Fickle finger of forex once again dominates the landscape
Never a dull day in Greece.
There’s confusion over whether the Troika can conclude their last review of Greece by year end and that means whether Greece has fulfilled its obligations on reforms and cost cutting.
Deputy PM Evangelos Venizelos has said that a short technical extension may be needed but Greece has flatly refused a longer term one that is the preference of the Troika. He’s also told reporters that the government won’t bring forward a presidential election.
The neverending Greek turmoil rolls on and the market is not liking it one bit. Greek 10 year yields have soared to just shy of 8.43% +13bp so far today. Good returns if you can stomach the risk No doubt a little of that may be weighing on the euro
One of the most influential regions, to affect the inflation numbers, posted a sizeable drop in year on year inflation. North Rhine Westphalia CPI fell to 0.7% y/y from 1.0% prior. Monthly it was -0.1% vs -0.2% prior.
The last region to print is Baden Wuerttemberg. There’s no expectations and last month was 0.8% y/y
Here’s the y/y results so far
- NRW 0.7% vs 1.0% prior
- Brandenburg 0.7% vs 0.9% prior
- Hesse 0.5% vs 0.8% prior
- Bavaria 0.8% unch
- Baden W 0.5% vs 0.8% prior
I’ve just posted the main German HICP in what looked like a mistake from Reuters. It’s expected in at 0.5% vs 0.7% prior y/y in HICP and 0.6% vs 0.8% prior in CPI.
With the results so far, we could be looking at seeing inflation fall more than expected so be ready for a print of maybe 0.4%. The euro might get a little boost if it prints 0.6% or 0.7%.
Update 10.47: Baden W is out now and added above.
It’s popped up on Reuters but not due until 13.00 gmt so quite possibly a mistake. I’ll let you know.
Update 10.26: It’s now been withdrawn
- Prior 100.7
- Consumer confidence final -11.6 vs -11.6 prior
- Industrial confidence -4.3 vs -5.5 exp. Prior -5.1
- Services conf 4.4 vs 4.0 exp. Prior 4.4
- Business climate indicator 0.18 vs 0.02 exp. Prior 0.05. Revised to 0.06
Things are looking up in the eurozone. We’ve even got some numbers that aren’t in the negative
Eurozone economic confidence 27 11 2014
USDCHF currently 0.9636 near session highs as EURUSD remains undermined
Sellers 0.9650-60 0.9685 0.9700-10 0.9730 0.9750 0.9785 0.9800
Buyers 0.9600 0.9580 0.9565 0.9550
EURCHF currently 1.2020 in tight range mode still
Sellers 1.2035-40 1.2050 1.2065 1.2075-85 1.2100 1.2125-35 1.2150
Buyers 1.2010-15 1.2000 (SNB cap- stops below 1.1990) 1.1970 1.1950
USDCAD currently 1.1277 just off session highs
Sellers 1.1300 1.1330 1.1350 1.1380 114.00-10
Buyers 1.1240 1.1200-10 1.1185 1.1150 1.1135 1.1100-10
NZDUSD currently 0.7880 in retreat after its impressive rally to 0.7927
Sellers 0.7910 0.7925-30 0.7950 0.8000
Buyers 0.7850-60 0.7800 0.7775 0.7750 0.7730 0.7700-10
- 12m expectations 58 vs 53 prior
A rebound in business optimism following last months drop to the lowest since April 2013. It’s a low tier indicator but it all goes into the mix.
Lloyds business barometer 27 11 2014