Forex headlines for August 21, 2014: August 2014 US Philly Fed business survey 28.0 vs 19.2 exp but details suspicious August 2014 US Markit manufacturing PMI flash 58.0 vs 55.7 exp US July existing home sales 5.15m vs 5.02m expected … Continue reading
The S&P 500 closed up 6 points to an all-time record 1992.38. Since the bottom on August 7, the index is up 4.6%. Here’s what I wrote that day. The market is conditioned to fear Fed hikes but I think … Continue reading
The US judge in the Argentina bond case says a swap into Argentine law debt is illegal and violates orders. A separate report says Argentina is working with Deutsche Bank on a waiver on the RUFO clause that would force … Continue reading
It’s easy to get tunnel vision with so much on the calendar but it’s not just Yellen on the calendar in the day ahead. First off, Asia and Europe are very quiet but Draghi delivers a speech at 1830 GMT … Continue reading
It’s always a sliding scale but do you think that we’ll be left with a hawkish or dovish impression from Yellen’s speech at 10 am ET at Jackson Hole. The title of her speech is “Labor Markets”.
Keep in mind in the day ahead that there’s a certain type of traders with money at work and another type waiting to put money to work. It’s not hard to figure out the way the flows will go before … Continue reading
All the data was good news for the economy but bond prices are higher across the board (10-year yields down 2.5 bps to 2.40% today). Why? Because the bond bears have been slaughtered by this woman: With Yellen putting on … Continue reading
Marketing firm J.D. Power forecasts 16.5m auto sales (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) in August. That’s up from 16.4m in July but down 0.5% year-over-year. Auto sales have been one of the strongest parts of the US economy this year but … Continue reading
TIPS are still a hot commodity with the yield on the 4.75 year reopening at -0.281 percentage points below inflation. That puts the breakeven on the OTR 5-year Treasury at 1.35%, which sounds a tad low but that’s the way … Continue reading
They say the failure of the pound to rally after the minutes this week is based on the debate whether rates go up in 2014 and 2015. In contrast, they say, the market is still more expectant of a continued … Continue reading
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