The adjustment in pricing is related to the new pricing mechanisms which the major producers have implemented (over the Reuters newswires).

 Obviously this type of price decrease will have some sort of negative impact on currencies like the AUD, CAD and BRL as the year progresses. The AUD/USD has slipped 15 pips, now back below .9100.

 Sure GBP/AUD is in a definite short-term downtrend and it has been since 1.76 but to start selling on the 1.68 handle,when the risk of a retracement rally would seem to be very high, is certainly a risky proposition. The break below the 61.8% retracement level is also a bearish sign and suggests a possible full-retracement to 1.62 but it’s certainly not conclusive.

Personally I’d prefer to try buying dips in line with the uptrend which began in May at 1.62. Neither side of the market would seem to have a particular advantage here so jumping into any trade mid-stream seems a bit reckless to me.

expected A$ 3.11bn  last A$ 3.54bn

Imports +2%, Exports -4% MoM, both seas adj

Well not up to expectation but AUD only slipped 15 points and holding

The heavy stops were all positioned above .9080 and AUD/USD rallied to a high of .9116 after they were triggerd in NY. Now we have fallen back to this level on the usual Asian market profit taking.

The other majors are trading quietly inside 15 pip ranges.

The news is that there is no news. We’re still stuck in the horse-trading pen and it looks unlikely that we’ll have any result this week.

The independents had asked both parties to present their policy costings to the Australian Treasury for assessment. The Liberal opposition initially refused and now we know why. Treasury found an AUD$7 billion gap in their costing estimates. Ah politicians, at least you know where you stand with them.

It can be beneficial to take a step backwards and look at the overall picture. The weekly chart shows some strong resistance at .9400 and a more recent bullish trendline coming in around .8800. I’d expect these parameters to hold for the next few weeks and playing as close to the edges as possible seems like a sensible strategy.

The AUD and the EUR have made some decent gains overnight and it now remains to be seen whether this trend continues now that September is upon us. I think we are probably more likely to get some false alarms before the next trend sets in.

On the economic data front, the Australian trade balance is due out this morning but normally doesn’t move the market. All the big stops above .9080 were triggered overnight and a session of consolidation is favoured.

Good luck today.

After a very spirited first couple of hours in New York, we’ve settled into a sort of quiet consolidation. Risk aversion has clearly eased in the wake of upbeat Chinese and AUD data overnight and the surprisingly firm ISM figures is icing on the cake.

Traders are reluctant to go too far out on the risk limb with jobless claims tomorrow and the employment report on Friday still to contend with.

Assuming the employment report shows any signs of strength, we will see continued repricing of risk, with stocks rising and bonds falling. Commodities may be more of a mixed bag as stronger global growth may undermine the “hard”asset part of the commodity equation: central banks will not have to be as aggressive trying novel forms of easing if the economy looks like it is beginning to right itself.

USD/JPY continues to stall in the mid-84.60s. EUR/USD is finding buyers on dips below 1.2800 and commodity currencies remain all the rage as AUD approaches .091 and USD/CAD consolidates below 1.0500.

• Decent sized corporate offers currently being worked through around .9000
• Stop-loss buy orders starting above .9030
• Heavier stops above .9080

The Nikkei bounced back a little way after hitting a 16-month low at 8796.45 briefly

After the Chinese and Australian data the market has quietened for a while: the AUD looks to be holding up well across the board and the Swissy looks to me like we may see a retracement as long we hold above 1.0140

Sean will be here in a few minutes with some wisdom

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