Assistant governor of the RBA says official interest rates will rise further but the AUD remains in the doldrums, unmoved at .9181.

Cable is 30 pips lower than it’s NY close after a big move higher overnight. AUD/USD tried to gain a foothold above .9200 but stop-loss selling in the AUD/NZD is weighing on the Aussie and it is back below its NY closing level also. EUR/USD has had a 12 pip range so far today. In 4 hours trade that is quite pathetic.

That is according to the well know RBA-watcher Terry McCrann who has been very accurate in his predictions over the last few months.

AUD/NZD is back below 1.29 and NZD/USD is at .7125 after a few sessions of fairly furious NZD short covering. We saw from the speculative positioning data earlier in the week that the market was already quite short the Kiwi and obviously not all that comfortable with the position, judging by the short-covering rush. Technical resistance in the NZD/USD is quite firm between .7150/75 and support in the AUD/NZD is at 1.2850 (38.2% 1.2410/1.3120)

It looks as if the AUD may well have one of its bullish spurts today with the pair back above .9200 and little in the way of resistance until .9325, a level at which the RBA has intervened on two occasions. Technical support is now firming at .9050 and with such an expensive carry in play, shorts are being consistently squeezed out of the market. Buy-big-dips is still the mantra here.

I hope the lively trade from overnight can wash over into Asia today. Cable was the big mover, enjoying a 300 pip range, and my initial target at 1.5285 has almost been met. EUR/USD has also been dragged higher but is likely to meet Sovereign selling between 1.3825/50. The AUD/USD keeps grinding its way higher and anyone trying to short this pair must be feeling rather disillusioned. USD/JPY continues to trade in tight ranges and will probably continue to do so for the rest of the month.

Good luck today (agus La Fheile Phadraig, which means happy St Patricks day to the non-Gaelic speakers!)

The steady-as-she-goes policy from the Fed is underpinning stocks and commodities and giving a lift to the risk trades in general. AUD/USD  is trying to establish a beachhead above the 0.9070 level and USD/CAD is getting comfortable below 1.0150. Cable is looking for a close above the former resistance at 1.5217 while EUR/USD has broken its downtrend and is chipping away at sellers stacked through the 1.3800 level.

Forex traders have a short attention span, so now that Greece has been taken off credit watch, the focus may shift to the US for a while. Lord knows there are enough US economic warts to exploit should the market turn its fire on the greenback.

An expensive new health care entitlement and an “infrastructure bank” announced today are just two new programs the government wants to adds despite $1trln deficits seen for the next decade or more.

A close above 1.3800 would go a long way toward swinging momentum against the dollar in the near-term, purely out of boredom, in my view…

• USD/JPY: solid corporate selling between 91.10/20; decent sized bids around 90.15, stops just below this level
• GBP/USD: stops both side of the market, above 1.5090 and below 1.5010. Talk of Sovereign bids 1.4950/60 with more stops below 1.4935/40.
• EUR/USD: heavy stops below 1.3530, Sovereign offers 1.3825/50. Mixed bag in between
• AUD/USD: Still corporate buying interest around .9085/95 with heavy stops below .9050. Mixture of stops and sell orders above .9200.

Looks like we might be close to a good buying level for AUD/JPY. AUD/USD dipped down below .9120 after the RBA minutes but the stay down there was short-lived and we are now back at the .9140 opening level. USD/JPY also tried to break lower and trigger stops below 90.15 but the bids there are seemingly quite solid.

The AUD/JPY daily chart tells a slightly different story. Any close today below 83.25 would suggest to me that a short term top is in place and that we should see a gradual move lower towards 81.00.

The AUD/USD has slipped slightly after the release of minutes from the last RBA meeting. Support around .9100 with heavy stops rumoured below .9050.

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