ForexLive » Australian economy

AUD/USD immediately falls 50 pips after CPI

Sean Lee — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 01:34:22 +0000

It looks like the RBA will not be hiking again for a while after the latest CPI figures for Q2 followed the trend set by the PPI earlier in the week. AUD/USD is now back below the 200-day MA and next major support is the previously strong resistance level at .8880.

Australian CPI trimmed mean +0.5% Vs 0.8% expected

Sean Lee — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 01:30:43 +0000

AUD/USD holding up well; US think tank tipping rate hike next week

Gerry Davies — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 08:58:59 +0000

AUD/USD sits at .9035, up from an early 9010. Talk has a well-known US think tank tipping RBA rate hike next week. Don’t have details, but will be lending the pairing support.

Australian PPI rose 0.3% Q/Q 1.0 % Y/Y

David Horton — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 01:30:28 +0000

As Sean reported earlier expectation was 1.5% ( Reuters poll expected 0.8%)

Previous quarter 1.0%

The y/y expectation was for 1.5%

AUD/USD 20 pips lower 0.8956

Now eyes will watch if the CPI follows and discourages speculation of an RBA move

AUD: Focus firmly on Wednesday’s CPI data

Sean Lee — Sun, 25 Jul 2010 23:45:05 +0000

This morning’s Producer Price Index for the June quarter is expected to show an increase of 1.5% compared with 1% last quarter. The main interest in the PPI will be as a general guide in predicting what Wednesday’s CPI might do, as that could have a major impact on the RBA’s next decision.

Heavy selling is expected on the approach to .9000 with stops just above there. Buying interest is expected to emerge close to the previous resistance levels at .8870/80.

Australian Q2 Import Prices +1.9% q/q/ Q2 Export Prices + 16.1%

David Horton — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 01:42:42 +0000

expectations were for 1.0% and 15.3% respectively

The rise in export prices was the largest since inception in 1974;

Speech by Glenn Stevens, RBA Governor

Sean Lee — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 03:58:33 +0000

The title is “Some longer-run consequences of the financial crisis“.

AUD/USD dips back on RBA minutes

Sean Lee — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 01:34:51 +0000

Buy the rumour, sell the fact. Aussie traders bought AUD/USD because USD/JPY was going up and were left sitting long after the release of the latest RBA minutes. Nowhere to go except down after that with AUD/USD sliding from .8735 to .8715. Offers above .8750 continue to cap the market.

Australian politics: Ruling Labor party increase lead in polls

Sean Lee — Sun, 18 Jul 2010 22:56:38 +0000

Polls in The Australian newspaper show that the Labor government has increased it’s lead over the Liberal opposition.

Australian New Motor Vehicle Sales drops 1.2%

David Horton — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 01:36:38 +0000

vs last -3.2%

AUD/USD trades quietly 0.8793 awaiting the Chinese data

Around the markets: Nikkei -1%, Gold steady around $1210

Sean Lee — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 01:06:54 +0000

The Nikkei is 1% lower, the Australian All Ords is -0.7% and the Kospi is -0.4%. Gold is slightly higher on the day at $1210/oz and oil is trading at $76.20. Next risk event will be the Australian inflation expectations in 20 minutes.

Important economic data due out this morning

Sean Lee — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 21:56:40 +0000

Chinese Q2 GDP at 02:00 GMT is expected to come in at 10.5% after 11.9% last quarter.
The BoJ will more than likely announce any decision on interest rates early in the Tokyo session although no changes are anticipated
Australian inflation expectations may have some impact on upcoming rate decisions

Wayne Swan bets on mining sector for bigger surplus in 2012-13

David Horton — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 03:43:49 +0000

Thanks to Chris for the prompt on this article – Wayne Swan unveiled today improvements to the government’s finances, including a larger-than-expected fiscal surplus in 2012-13

Australian economy: Westpac-MI July consumer confidence index +11.1%

Sean Lee — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 00:32:51 +0000

The AUD/USD has popped up 10 pips and AUD/JPY is on session highs at 78.85.

Australian Treasurer Swan to release an updated economic forecast tomorrow – Australian Broadcasting Corp website

Gerry Davies — Tue, 13 Jul 2010 10:54:37 +0000

To include details on projected revenue from revised mining tax and may confirm the budget will return to surplus in 2013.

Aussie Business Conditions Improve, Mood Steadies – NAB Report

David Horton — Tue, 13 Jul 2010 01:42:27 +0000

NAB June Business Confidence Falls to 4 vs 5 in May

NAB Business Conditions Rise to 8 vs 6 in May

AUD/USD trades down to 0.8752/53 low of the day

ForexLive Asian market open: not much change to the majors

Sean Lee — Mon, 12 Jul 2010 21:23:15 +0000

Not much change compared with yesterday morning in the majors and this is something we should be getting more used to as we get right into the holiday season in Europe and the US. EUR/USD may have posted an interim top at 1.2720 but with dips meeting Sovereign and real money bids, we should not expect major moves in any direction.

There will be some UK data released this morning and the NAB Australian business confidence measure a little later.

Good luck today.

Australian Housing Finance Rise…

David Horton — Mon, 12 Jul 2010 01:34:10 +0000

May Owner-Occupier Finance rises + 1.9 % MoM seas adj vs exp 1.5%

May Value of Investor Housing Finance rises + seas adj + 2.6%

No currency impact, although this was the first rise since last September; no signs of a rapid rebound after the series of RBA rate hikes and a small ( -0.3%) fall in new mortgages

First-home buyers were only 16% of borrowers after a a record high 0f 28.5% a year ago , bolstered by the significant subsidies

AUD jumps after better-than-expected jobs data

Sean Lee — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 01:33:11 +0000

The unemployment rate came in at 5.1% and the AUD/USD has jumped 75 pips immediately, .8747 the high so far.

Japanese machinery orders and Australian employment rate on the calendar this morning

Sean Lee — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 22:24:29 +0000

The market does pay some attention to the Japanese core machinery orders although it would be a gross exaggeration to call it a market moving event.

The Australian un-employment rate is expected to stay at 5.2% and this might have more of an impact on the market.

Click here for the full economic calendar.