Unless I’ve missed something, it seems that London dealers will be getting off their commuter trains without an overly bearish GBP mindset. The UK press is concentrating on the upcoming election and on European woes. I have short term technical support/resistance levels in the cable at 1.5275/1.5380 with 1.5180/1.5425 outside of there.

I’m thinking that we may need to adjust our trading styles to these present choppy markets and that we may be in a phase which lasts for 12 months or more. It’s difficult to see any major trend arising in the EUR, GBP, JPY or USD (barring a Greek tragedy) and I think we should be looking to make 400/500 pips maximum in any one market phase, book these profits and then go looking again for the next opportunity. Buy and hold big dips in the AUD/USD and then trade the other majors according to short term sentiment, that’s how I see the next few months evolving.

I went with them last week when they recommended a long trade at 1.4925 and that was a very nice little earner, thank you Citi bank. They are going for the big payday and have added to their position overnight at present levels, with a s/l raised to 1.5180 and a target at 1.5700. I think they may be biting a bit too much off with this trade but good luck to them.

After a period of consolidation between .9100/.9200, the AUD/USD looks like it has recommenced it’s uptrend and I am looking for a move now above and beyond .9400. The GBP has also continued to undo its severely oversold status but I think it will struggle to make more sharp gains as we near the 1.55 breakdown level. EUR/USD is rangebound 1.3550/1.3850 (with a bullish bias in my opinion) and USD/JPY is, well, USD/JPY (enough said).

Good luck today.

Cable is 30 pips lower than it’s NY close after a big move higher overnight. AUD/USD tried to gain a foothold above .9200 but stop-loss selling in the AUD/NZD is weighing on the Aussie and it is back below its NY closing level also. EUR/USD has had a 12 pip range so far today. In 4 hours trade that is quite pathetic.

I hope the lively trade from overnight can wash over into Asia today. Cable was the big mover, enjoying a 300 pip range, and my initial target at 1.5285 has almost been met. EUR/USD has also been dragged higher but is likely to meet Sovereign selling between 1.3825/50. The AUD/USD keeps grinding its way higher and anyone trying to short this pair must be feeling rather disillusioned. USD/JPY continues to trade in tight ranges and will probably continue to do so for the rest of the month.

Good luck today (agus La Fheile Phadraig, which means happy St Patricks day to the non-Gaelic speakers!)

• USD/JPY: solid corporate selling between 91.10/20; decent sized bids around 90.15, stops just below this level
• GBP/USD: stops both side of the market, above 1.5090 and below 1.5010. Talk of Sovereign bids 1.4950/60 with more stops below 1.4935/40.
• EUR/USD: heavy stops below 1.3530, Sovereign offers 1.3825/50. Mixed bag in between
• AUD/USD: Still corporate buying interest around .9085/95 with heavy stops below .9050. Mixture of stops and sell orders above .9200.

The so-called ‘in the know’ accounts were selling EUR/USD and cable quite heavily yesterday during the London session. I’m not sure what’s behind it, whether they were taking profits on longs from last week or whether they are instigating fresh shorts, but there certainly was a lot of activity. EUR/USD still looks quite constructive to me but the big level to watch is now 1.3530. There are reportedly massive stops building below there and the market is bound to target them if/when we get closer. Remember what happened in cable when it broke below that pivotal 1.5500-50 support a few weeks ago? It fell 7 big figures in a straight line. A break now below 1.3530 in EUR/USD might this time create enough bearish momentum to challenge and defeat the big Sovereign bids in the low 1.34’s and such an event would be a game-changer in my view.

The latest UK housing data is not inspiring and with the British Press having had the whole weekend to come up with some negative headlines, I would not be at all surprised to see the pound under a bit of pressure in early trade. I see cable trading in a 1.4950/1.5350 range for the majority of this week and I will again look to trade the edges of this range.

Regional equity markets have been pretty slow so far this morning, the Nikkei is +0.3% and the Kospi is -0.3%. Gold is  steady at $1103/oz but there’s still talk in the market that some of the bigger long term players are exiting their long positions. The EUR and the AUD are slipping back against both the USD and the GBP. The sentiment for the JPY remains bearish but corporate selling of both EUR/JPY and USD/JPY is tempering any moves higher.

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