A high-profile NY think tank which prefers to remain nameless says there is a possibility that the SNB could hike rates in December, though the odds are diminished (probably by the strong currency).

They firm sees the SNB hiking before the ECB, regardless.

Intervention cannot be ruled out, but it would not be as large as earlier efforts, they say…

My take is that the currency tightens monetary conditions enough that the SNB will refrain from hiking for soe time to come.

Down at 1,2965 from early 1.3010, with reports a UK cleaer has been notable seller of the cross this morning.

Better than expected Q2 GDP data will have supported swissy.

Despite the very heavy option-related selling below 1.3000 which took the market as low as 1.2850, EUR/CHF has bounced back very impressively. When a market bounces hard despite being in a strong downtrend and despite heavy selling still occuring, then we may be close to a bottom.

Another point to keep in mind is that the flat trendline support in USD/CHF comes in at 1.0020.

All music to the ears of a contrarian like myself but I’ve been burned a few times already so I will proceed with caution.

I’d put this one in the “hard to believe” category, but just to let you know.

Talk a major Swiss commerical bank has been asking their clients to take back shorts in EUR/CHF. Sounds like a load of old cobblers to me.

A source infact tells me, that only yesterday said bank was opining that there was a low risk of a sharp rebound in the cross.

EUR/CHF presently up at 1.2943 from early 1.2900.

EUR/CHF will begin the new month at fresh record lows and this may encourage some of the bigger macro funds to join in the rout, those that aren’t already involved that is. I think it was Paul Tudor-Jones who said that his best trades often came when he realised he was wrong and then doubled up in the other direction. Well I’ve been very wrong on EUR/CHF for the last 10 big figures but I certainly don’t have the stomach to reverse strategy and double-up.

Regarding USD/JPY, if the BoJ don’t turn up to defend recent lows at 83.50 then I think we can ignore their blusterings (in fact most of the market seems to be already doing so). As Jamie mentions below, if corporate Japan are still on the offer then this pair is probably set for lower levels.

GBP seems to be losing a bit of its recent glitter whilst the EUR and AUD are jogging on the spot.

Good luck today.

Looks like we’re seeing the dip buyers in USD/CHF and EUR/CHF being carried out on stretchers. A month-end surge in franc may just be a seasonal thing but given the new ground made to the downside in the cross (all time lows around 1.2880) and below 1.0200 in USD/CHF, clearly this is a powerful move that should not be faded.

If you are so inclined to pick bottoms (never a high-probability activity), let the market bottom and buy a bounce. Don’t catch a falling knife.

1.0130 is crucial support for USD/CHF. More stops are perched below and a sustained break should see push below parity.

The EUR/CHF selling which mentioned earlier is having the obvious effect on USD/CHF and stops below 1.0220 are getting very close. We should remember that we got very close last week also but couldn’t trigger them.

Heavy optionality also seen at 1.0200.

This is somewhat unusual for the Asian timezone but it is selling in EUR/CHF which is leading the market this morning.

The daily close below 1.30 is a bearish event and we are now trading at historical lows. At least two waves of selling have hit the market already today and with no historical supports to base our decisions on, it may have some distance yet to fall.

Dealers say that most of the flows are coming out of EUR/CHF and that heavy selling in the cross has forced the EUR/USD lower and tripped stops below 1.2660.

Stocks are giving back much of the gains made on Friday, now down 0.8%. Bond yields continue to slide as well, down to 2.55% from 2.60 earlier in the day and 2.65% at Friday’s close. Risk aversion is in full flower once again.

EUR/JPY trades at 107.45 and EUR/CHF at 1.3000, both sharply lower on the day but slightly above earlier intraday lows.

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