EUR/USD sits at 1,3780, hardly changed from North American close Tuesday around 1.3770, Asian trade confined to uninspired 1.3764-1.3788 range.  So far protection of barrier option interest up at 1.3800 is capping recent rally. 

Euro zone data today is thin on the ground:

10:00 GMT: Euro zone labour costs Q4 expected 2.7% y/y

10:00 GMT: Euro zone construction output for January

10:05 GMT: Italian current account for January

Nothing there to really whet the appetite.

Article by AEP in The Telegraph will have been noted. Entitled “The proposed EU Greek bail-out cannot simply bypass German law.”

Above aforementioned 1.3800, sovereign sell interest tipped up at 1.3825/50.

Cable is 30 pips lower than it’s NY close after a big move higher overnight. AUD/USD tried to gain a foothold above .9200 but stop-loss selling in the AUD/NZD is weighing on the Aussie and it is back below its NY closing level also. EUR/USD has had a 12 pip range so far today. In 4 hours trade that is quite pathetic.

I hope the lively trade from overnight can wash over into Asia today. Cable was the big mover, enjoying a 300 pip range, and my initial target at 1.5285 has almost been met. EUR/USD has also been dragged higher but is likely to meet Sovereign selling between 1.3825/50. The AUD/USD keeps grinding its way higher and anyone trying to short this pair must be feeling rather disillusioned. USD/JPY continues to trade in tight ranges and will probably continue to do so for the rest of the month.

Good luck today (agus La Fheile Phadraig, which means happy St Patricks day to the non-Gaelic speakers!)

The steady-as-she-goes policy from the Fed is underpinning stocks and commodities and giving a lift to the risk trades in general. AUD/USD  is trying to establish a beachhead above the 0.9070 level and USD/CAD is getting comfortable below 1.0150. Cable is looking for a close above the former resistance at 1.5217 while EUR/USD has broken its downtrend and is chipping away at sellers stacked through the 1.3800 level.

Forex traders have a short attention span, so now that Greece has been taken off credit watch, the focus may shift to the US for a while. Lord knows there are enough US economic warts to exploit should the market turn its fire on the greenback.

An expensive new health care entitlement and an “infrastructure bank” announced today are just two new programs the government wants to adds despite $1trln deficits seen for the next decade or more.

A close above 1.3800 would go a long way toward swinging momentum against the dollar in the near-term, purely out of boredom, in my view…

Looks like the market needs EUR/USD and cable at the 16:00 GMT fixing. Cable reacged 1.5208 and EUR/USD sis around 1.3760.

That didn’t take long. EUR/USD eased to the 1.3736 level after trading as high as 1.3771 after Greece was taken off S&P’s naughty list.

Looks like not much has changed; EUR/USD is offered on rallies toward 1.38 while it is bid on dips to the 1.3650 level near-term. Rinse, repeat.

EUR/USD is testing downtrend resistance around the 1.3640 level but traders do not expect any sort of explosive rally. Resistance is arrayed int he 1.3760/1.3780/1.3800 area with a barrier option rumored at the last of these levels. Look for any move higher to be a grind rather than a sprint.

Merrill Lynch survey’s its fund manager clients each month and publishes a survey. This month’s survey shows sentiment moving against Europe and toward the US.

Not surprising, given the unsettled backdrop in the euro zone in recent months.

EUR/USD continues to range trade, edging into the 1.3720s as gold bounced to fresh session highs around $1125 after finding support around $1100 in recent days.  It trades now at 1.3719.

EUR/USD has been flirting with the downtrend that has been in place since early December in quiet US trade. We’ve edged above the trendline the two prior sessions on an intraday basis but have yet to close above it. Given the lack of momentum in the market, I get the sense that we may break the downtrend by moving sideways rather than exploding to the topside…

1.3741 is where the trendline is drawn today, for what it’s worth.

Having finally take out sell orders at 1.3700/10, presently at 1.3715.

I think the trigger for the move is the news from a German government source that the German government is open to the involvement of the IMF should Greece need aid.  Tricky, as some would say the need for IMF involvement reflects fact EU can’t keep their own house in order.

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