• German trade will only reach pre-crisis levels from 2013
• Weaker euro is helping competitivity of German products, but imports more costly
• A stable euro exchange rate is important for German export firms
• Sees GDP rising up to 3% in 2010

• But there are some credit difficulties, especially with larger medium-sized  companies
• We are ready for emergencies but banks should first provide more credit
• State will not take over the job of banks

German January trade surplus  came in at s.a 8.7 bln euros, down from 16.6 bln in December, and demonstrably weaker than median forecast of 16.0 bln.  The news hit the euro with EUR/USD falling to 1.3562 session low.  There is some wariness of sovereign buy interest down around 1.3550 and we’ve recovered to 1.3570 at writing.

Has come in at +0.6% m/m compared to median forecast of +1.0%

German Econ Ministry says improved orders data not yet showing up in output figures.  Orders data nonetheless point to rebound in economic activity soon.

German January factory orders have come in at +4.3% m/m, demonstrably stronger than median forecast of +1.5%, and biggest jump since JUne 2007.

EUR/USD sits at 1.3593 in becalmed trade.  Price action continues to bang about between buy orders down at 1.3550/60 and sell orders up at 1.3610.

Up from 53.7 in January, slightly firmer from 57.1 flash estimate/median forecast, highest read since June 2007.

At flat q/q, -1.7% y/y

Elsewhere German Gfk March consumer sentiment came in down at 3.2 from revised 3.3 in February, but better than median forecast of 3.0.

• Ifo index fell in February especially due to strong downturn in retail sales
• Possible severe winter weighed on retail sales
• Severe winter hit construction activity hard, but should rebound strongly in months ahead
• Companies are not made percepibly uncertain by Greek financial crisis
• Weaker euro in wake of Greek crisis is helping German companies in near-term
• Not necessary to change interest rates
• Consumer outlook is not rosy, but do not expect any collapse

German Ifo says February business climate index 95.2, below median forecast of 96.1.  Current conditions index 89.8, below median forecast 91.8

Expectations index 100.9, slightly higher than median forecast 100.5. No revisions to January data.

EUR/USD has slipped back in wake of data, presently at 1.3665.

German February manufacturing PMI 57.1 from 53.7 in January, better than median forecast 53.9 and the highest read since June 2007

Services PMI 51.7, down from 52.2 in January and below median forecast of 52.4.

Composite 55.4, up from 54.6 in January and highest since August 2007.

EUR/USD remains little changed on day, presently at 1.3480.

• 1
• 2
• 3
• 4
• 5
• ...
• 8
• >