ForexLive » German Economy

Germany’s Merkel: Economic recovery is strong

Gerry Davies — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 09:39:43 +0000

Confidence in banking sector must be created through stress tests
Labour market situation is better now than before the crisis
Budget consolidation will be carried out as planned

I like Angela.

German Q2 growth in GDP likely “significantly stronger” than Q1 GDP growth – FinMin monthly report

Gerry Davies — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 06:10:11 +0000

Recovery likely to strengthen in second half of 2010
Outlook for further rise in German exports good
Positive development in industrial demand points to continuing upward trend in output in months ahead
Private consumption likely remained weak in Q2, but to pick up in course of year
Labour market unlikely to deteriorate now given improvement in economic indicators
Consumer prices to develop “calmly” over course of year

ZEW institute July German economic sentiment index 21.2 vs 28.7 in June

Gerry Davies — Tue, 13 Jul 2010 09:09:40 +0000

Don’t know what happened here, but lost slab of stuff. Here we go:

Weaker than median forecast of 25.0.

ZEW says:

Figures signal potential for further improvement to have been used up widely
Sovereign debt crisis, resulting need for austerity seems to have contributed to subdued economic expectations
Investors expect German business activity to slow down towards end of year. But expectations still relatively high
Do not think bank stress tests will have impact on sentiment
No change in banking profit expectations vs last month
No inflationary pressure in euro zone seen by investors
The panic regarding sovereign debt crisis seems to be over
No indication of double dip recession from the survey
Weaker growth seen in the euro zone at large than in Germany

German Federal Labour Office chief: Chance German unemployment will be below 3 mln by year’s end

Gerry Davies — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 08:23:34 +0000

Labour market situation is better than feared, but still uncertain
Economy good in Q2, but shadow over 2011

Stress tests may shed light on German Landesbanken “black hole”

Gerry Davies — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 08:07:37 +0000

Bloomberg article.

German June unemployment change -21k m/m to 3.23 mln

Gerry Davies — Wed, 30 Jun 2010 07:56:34 +0000

Compared to median forecast of -25k. Unemployment steady at 7.7%, as expected.

Deutsche, Commerzbank, Bayern LB said to pass stress test – Sources

Gerry Davies — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 10:51:00 +0000

The three German banks are said to have passed a stress test that evaluated how 25 European lenders would weather an economic downturn. Bloomberg report.

Merkel rejects Obama’s call to spend

Gerry Davies — Thu, 24 Jun 2010 05:11:35 +0000

In an interview with the WSJ the German Chancellor rebuffs pressure to boost domestic demand not exports; warns Europe’s crisis is far from over.

EUR/USD has traded very marginally firmer during the Asian session, presently at 1.2330 from North American close Wednesday down around 1.2310. Next batch of stop orders seen up through 1.2365.

Eurozone data due today:

06:45 GMT: French consumer spending for May expected +0.4% m/m, +1.4% y/y

08:00 GMT: Italian retail sales for April expected -0.1% m/m, +2.1% y/y

09:00 GMT: Euro zone industrial new orders for April expected +1.6% m/m, +21.8% y/y

09:00 GMT: Italian unemployment Q1 expected 8.6%

Soros says Germany savings policy is a danger for Europe – paper

Gerry Davies — Wed, 23 Jun 2010 08:45:36 +0000

German policy could destroy European project, can’t rule out euro collapse
If Germany doesn’t change policy, it’s exit from currency union would help rest of Europe
Germany dragging their neighbours into deflation, could mean protracted stagnation
Deflation, stagnation lead to nationalism, social unrest
Germany is isolated, should allow wages to rise to help other EU states

German IFO business climate index rises to 101.8 in June

Gerry Davies — Tue, 22 Jun 2010 08:02:24 +0000

Better than median forecast of 101.2.

IFO’s Abberger:

Economic recovery is robust and intact
European debt crisis is not the main issue for German firms
German government savings package is not so severe that it will damage economy
Central banks should keep main interest rates stable

German May PPI stronger than expected

Gerry Davies — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 06:05:22 +0000

Has come in at +0.3% m/m, +0.9% y/y, stronger than median forecasts of +0.1%, +0.8% respectively.

German DIHK: Recovery is speeding up, driven by exports which are supported by weak euro

Gerry Davies — Tue, 15 Jun 2010 08:40:33 +0000

Majority of firms see current conditions as positive for first time since crisis start
Business expectations inspire confidence, industry expectations at second best historical level
Sees unemployment falling to 3.2 mln in 2010, lowest level since 1992
Sees increased problem from lack of skilled workers, Germany must deal with demographic change
Sticking to 2010 growth forecast of 2.3%

Hey, pretty upbeat stuff!!!! EUR/USD makes it back over 1.2200, presently at 1.2205.

EDIT: Talk of stops gathering up around 1.2230.

BUBA: Sees German real GDP +1.9% in 2010, +1.4% 2011

Gerry Davies — Fri, 11 Jun 2010 09:44:48 +0000

HICP inflation of 1.2% in 2010, 1.6% in 2011
German unemployment 3.3 mln in 2010, 3.4 mln in 2011, jobless rate 8.0% in 2011
German economic recovery has picked up from sluggish winter, positive momentum from global economy
Price rises remain restrained despite euro’s decline on forexc markets

German April industry output +0.9% m/m

Gerry Davies — Tue, 08 Jun 2010 10:11:49 +0000

Pretty much in line with median forecast of +0.8%.

German EconMin: The momentum in industrial orders indicates a further recovery in industrial production. Onwards and upwards.

German April trade surplus s.a 13.1 bln

Gerry Davies — Tue, 08 Jun 2010 06:03:47 +0000

Versus 13.0 bln in March, below median forecast of 14.0 bln.

Exports s.a -5.9% m/m, imports -7.3% m/m.

April current account 11.8 bln, down from 18.1 bln in March.

German April factory orders +2.8% m/m

Gerry Davies — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 10:02:04 +0000

Much stronger than median forecast of +0.2%

Economy Ministry says recovery in German industry is continuing and firming.

German FinMin Schaeuble: Not all banks out of the woods yet

Gerry Davies — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 10:27:06 +0000

Party pooper. EUR/USD slips back slightly, presently at 1..2237.

German jobs data better than expected

Gerry Davies — Tue, 01 Jun 2010 08:02:02 +0000

German jobless total in May (seasonally adjusted) fell 45k, better than median forcast of 20k. Unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, better than expected 7.8%.

EUR/USD is rallying back. Having been down to probe Swiss buying interest at 1.2170/80 (session low 1.2175), it’s presently back up at 1.2195 in increasingly choppy trade.

German Finance Agency: BOBL auction took place in very volatile market conditions

Gerry Davies — Wed, 26 May 2010 10:33:17 +0000

Demand for German sovereign bonds is unbroken across all maturities

German Gfk June consumer sentiment indicator 3.5 vs downwardly revised 3.7 in May (prev 3.8)

Gerry Davies — Wed, 26 May 2010 06:04:42 +0000

Weaker than median forecast of 3.6.