We probably need to keep an eye out for bigger moves in the gold market as they could have ramifications for the FX market. China and India remain consistent buyers and it was interesting to see the Chinese trying to talk the price down last week. Hedge funds are reportedly selling out of their strategic long positions yet the price is far from collapsing. There is a growing feeling that the new emerging economic powerhouses are looking to increase the percentage of their reserves in gold rather than relying completely on international government paper.

The levels to watch are $1050 and $1150 and a clean break either side will probably usher in the next big move.

For those economists amongst you, here is the update to the Eichengreen/O’Rourke analysis from last year comparing recent events with the Great Depression era. Things are looking up it seems but don’t withdraw the stimulus too early is the message.

An Observer investigation reveals how rich countries now farm an area double the size of the UK to guarantee supplies for their citizens.

JP Morgan’s global service sector PMI rose to 52.6 in Feb from 51.2 in January while the all-industries PMI edged up to 53.6 from 53.2.

These are supportive of the reflation trade…

Latest from AEP

World Bank chief Zoellick says it is unlikely that the global economy faces a double-dip recession.

Load up on risk trades kids. the World Bank has spoken… 

Ballooning public debt is likely to force several countries to default and the U.S. to slash spending, according to Harvard Professor Rogoff.

So Barney Frank’s pushing for a bill to provide banks with another $4 Trillion in bailout funds – if needed.

Yep, it must be time for another Sachs attack.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/32255149/wall_streets_bailout_hustle/

Another big story from the recent past was the possible collapse of the Dubai World property empire. The problems haven’t been completely resolved and stories are starting to hit the mainstream press once again, like this from the UK Times.

Irwin Stelzer in The Times.

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