CNBC reports that early reports indicate no spill in the Gulf of Mexico after an explosion on a rig….

Here we go again. Another oil rig has apparently exploded in the Gulf of Mexico.

The highest oil supplies on record are sloshing around the markets, oil analyst Peter Buetel tells CNBC. Absent financial players buying commodities as a safe-haven from debased currencies, the price of the commodity would be around $10, he concludes.

• Raises 2010 non-OPEC oil output growth forecast by 100,000 bpd, output now expected to rise 720,000 bpd in 2010
• Doubles estimated decline in 2011 non-OPEC oil output, production now expected to fall by 160,000 bpd

Using my highly-honed analytical skills (yer right), I think it might just have something to do with the firmer oil price……

DAX and CAC both up at 0.4 % and 0.5% futures-wise

Oil has been trading at a 4-week low around $71…currently Brent Crude trades at 71.50 (august contract)

It’s not a risk-on day just yet despite the rebound in EUR/USD. Oil is under heavy pressure, trading down at $74.50, down 1.15 on the day. USD/JPY is off lows but still trading well south of 88.00.

On the bright side, US Treasury yields are off their lows (around 2.91% to trade now at 2.94%. Still very low yields by any measure, though.Stocks are flat after slipping a half-percent following the jump in jobless claims.

EUR/USD is consolidating gains, now at 1.2382.

That would be good.

The Obama Administration imposed a unilateral 6 month moratorium on deep water offshore drilling after the BP disaster. That move has just been overturned by a US judge.

The White House says they will immediately appeal the decision.

Look for a potential dip in crude which could hit the commodity currencies. Crude is at $77.65.

Oil lower, off just over three quarters of a buck. Friday innit. No one wants to embrace risk.

EUR/USD at session low 1.2368.  Stops noted through 1.2330.  Cable down at 1.4810.

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