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Barney Rubble rumbled

So Barney Frank’s pushing for a bill to provide banks with another $4 Trillion in bailout funds – if needed.

Yep, it must be time for another Sachs attack.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/32255149/wall_streets_bailout_hustle/

By lilac  || February 18, 2010 at 19:22 GMT
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Hostages to a fortune

An ominous universal precept perhaps, but as far as the UK is concerned, the Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne’s City lecture this week has effectively consigned this year’s budget, not unfittingly, to the slops bin - a remarkable achievement, lest we forget that he’s a greenhorn. In fact I’d be less worried if he were Donald Duck.
In his article, Edmund Conway makes reference to history being our guide.
Admittedly, any reference to history these days immediately conjures a red rag for me, to the point where I now wonder whether Gordon Robespierre Brown may have taken several leaves from its annals during his own more-prolonged Reign of Terror as Chancellor, when he tried to spend his way to popularity in an obsessively vain attempt to disrobe Tony Blair.
The protracted Keynesian tactics employed at the hand of Gord in reaction to the sub-prime crisis have only served to exacerbate long-term fiscal damage, and worse, in a gargantuan effort since March last year to stimulate the economy, the extent to which the UK has printed money is truly awesome. Having tripled the size of its monetary base, more than 99% of the nice new crispy stuff has subsequently been deployed to buy the UK’s sovereign debt, thus enabling Mr Brown and his acolytes to feed their addiction to obfuscation and procrastination, in a spending frenzy concocted to assist them in their bid to prevail at the polls and hang on to their ill-gotten jobs. And so we’re presently on a life support system fuelled by a precarious form of circular financing that is inevitably destined for a very sticky ending.
The facts are glaringly obvious – apart from boasting the G20’s biggest deficit, the UK’s rate of debt accumulation is steeper than that of any other developed country, and unless we can convince our creditors of our seriousness of intent, the world’s bond markets may soon refuse to buy any more UK sovereign instruments, rendering it ultimately impossible for the world’s (currently) fifth largest economy to roll over its debts.
Far better that heads should have rolled long before now.
“The government in this revolution is the despotism of tyranny against liberty.”
Apologies to Robespierre.
By lilac  || January 16, 2010 at 20:33 GMT
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Jugular Balls?

It isn’t today’s leadership challenge ruck that’s at stake here, from where I’m sat sitting snuggled in from the snow.
What’s more, it all ended as quickly the way the last rebellion did, some six months back, presumably after Baron Munchtrousers once again threatened the rest of the revolting crew with whatever dirt or carrots he holds over them – because once again, after his most recent spell on the perimeter of the wilderness
doubtless he has been promised fresh accolades to swell his vaults.
 
Pimco’s stance of an ‘80% chance’ of a UK credit rating downgrade is by far a bigger smack in the cojones, seeing as the head of their European investment team is Andrew Balls. (Umm, pun intended). His brother Ed (who isn’t even up to the ranking of a talking horse) has long since had delusions of Prime Ministership. So perhaps big brother’s behind the big fat no confidence vote in the UK government’s handling of the economy.
Funny thing, that – seeing as Ed Balls was once Chancellor Brown’s economic adviser.
Oh and then he served as chief economic adviser to the Treasury for 5 years (when he was named the most powerful unelected person in Britain – see, Mandelson’s not the first) until he was finally elected as an MP less than 5 years ago.
And now Balls is tasked with handling the UK government’s re-election strategy – with such mastery.
 
Meanwhile the DMO are expecting to shift £187 billion in gilts this year huh.
No consolation at all, but dear Darling won’t be digging for much longer.
Even so, this is where some might say be very afraid.
By lilac  || January 7, 2010 at 05:20 GMT
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Goldman sacks bonuses

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXKFa5Ml.47s&pos=1
 
I actually think this is probably quite significant in the scheme of things.
Having been mocked, reviled and ridiculed now that times are really tough, it was ever divined that they should lead the rest of the rabble by example.

All very tongue in cheek, coming from me. But when you consider that the Goldman model has been adopted by just about every Thomas, Richard and Harold (perhaps in a similar vein to the now extinct Ford model, obviously for different reasons and in a different world) they were always going to be the ones to get leaned on by the Special One in the suit.
 
As far as the UK’s PBR and its ramifications are concerned, firms were already looking at ways to minimise the impact of any punitive measures and were considering a number of options including increasing bankers’ salaries in return for reducing the bonus element of their pay, beefing up benefits (such as paying school fees) and reclassifying bankers as consultants, thereby making them self-employed businessmen, oops sorry, persons, and escaping any banker tax.
 
Banker tax – I love it ;)
 
In fact, one Asian City bank is believed to have already allocated at least two years’ worth of bonuses in the past few weeks. And the big four accountants and magic circle law firms, that charge up to £600 an hour for advice on two-steps-ahead-of-the-Revenue tax avoidance schemes, had long since set up teams of experts in anticipation of studying the Chancellor’s proposals.
So, the upshot of dear Darling’s announcement, as one rubber-of-hands-together has already stated, “has nothing to do with reducing the public spending deficit, and it may well be contrary to Human Rights legislation as it is unprecedented in the sense that never before has a UK government sought to levy a special tax relating to individuals working in a particular sector.”
 
All in all, there has been much ado about nothing, it’ll likely prove difficult to gauge how much tax the measure will actually raise, as considerable time and effort will be expended by bankers to get round it. The Treasury has better prospects of looking foward to increased revenue from the considerable time equating to billable hours involved for all concerned.

One serious note though. Jamie said yesterday that ”traders fear the UK banking sector could be badly hurt by the combination of EU heavy-handedness and punitive tax policies, permanently killing the UK’s golden goose. It was a fun 25 years while it lasted…”

That’s the contradiction neatly summed up in a nutshell really.

Bank lending constitutes about five times UK GDP. If it carries on growing without substantial increases in banks’ capital base – which has been declining proportionally for 30 years - the next bailout would overwhelm the British economy.
 
Surely the City is a national asset only if it is self-sustaining.
I am reliably informed by a good friend, who has had many top floor dealings with City slackers, that 4,900 of the purported 5,000 £1m+ earners are nothing short of a waste of office space. So the talk that any insistence that banks should recognise the quid pro quo element of obligations vs rights to their handouts will be met by an exodus of ‘talented’ staff to other countries, fills me with pleasant anticipation.
And I don’t understand the fuss about a possible exodus to Switzerland – a country that was nearly brought to its knees by the UBS.
 
So rock on, Tommy – because the midget frog’s on the case now too; fortunately for the proletariat though, someone had the foresight to transcribe Gordon’s Dear Nicolas letter for us, or we should never have known.

Very soon now, doubtless there’ll be a global riot.
 

Prior to their most recent petit tiff, Sarkozy memorably declared, “you know, Gordon, I should not like you – you are Scottish, we have nothing in common and you are an economist” [hoho, he got that bit wrong]. “But somehow, Gordon, I love you … but not in a sexual way.”
 
Gosh it was only in February that the French President had said the Prime Minister had ruined Britain’s economy:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/4537545/French-President-Nicolas-Sarkozy-accuses-Gordon-Brown-of-ruining-British-economy.html

Puts Bernanke a bit behind the door really ;)

By lilac  || December 11, 2009 at 05:29 GMT
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Ben Bernanke says Gordon Brown hurt Britain’s ability to resolve banking crisis

Robert Winnett, Deputy Political Editor of the Telegraph, writes that Ben Bernanke said that, during his tenure as UK Chancellor, Mr Brown’s decision to strip the Bank of England of its supervisory role over banks had led to a “destructive run” and a “major problem for the British economy”.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/6728665/Ben-Bernanke-says-Gordon-Brown-hurt-Britains-ability-to-resolve-banking-crisis.html

Brown is indeed a ‘doctor’ of history, as he continues to refute the devastating consequences of his gross negligence - and so I extend my challenge to any historian who has achieved eminence by anything other than infamy, to get cracking on the the final draft of “The Brown Bottom 1999-2010.”

By lilac  || December 5, 2009 at 12:55 GMT
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Just one more merry-go-round in all the fun at the fair

London-based Fitch’s Edward Parker, head of emerging Europe sovereigns, said in a report published on Thursday last week, that concerns over public finances had moved to centre stage:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aicTjCmDfYSQ

There was also news that day that the IMF said it may conclude negotiations with Ukraine by the end of this week, in which case, Max Alier, the Washington-based lender’s local representative, said in an interview in Kiev, Ukraine may get the fourth tranche of its $16.4 billion loan sometime in November. One of the provisos, however, is that the government needs to endorse several policy decisions, including a veto of the wage and pension law which had been approved by the Ukraine Parliament on 20 October, in an effort to win voters’ support ahead of the general election early next year.

Then on Friday, David Haslem, director for emerging Europe sovereigns, told a conference in Kiev that Fitch saw significant risk for financial stability in Ukraine.

So get ready for the ghost ride:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article6900303.ece

The Russian Prime Minister’s warning of a gas conflict relates to mounting tension in Ukraine between Yulia Tymoshenko, the country’s Prime Minister, and President Yuschenko. Both are candidates in presidential elections due to be held in January and Russia hopes that the winner will be more sympathetic to Moscow than the incumbent. According to Mr Putin, Mr Yuschenko is blocking the transfer of funds needed to pay for gas. Mr Putin insists that Ukraine has the funds to pay its gas bills but the money is being withheld. “According to the International Monetary Fund, Ukraine does have the money. Furthermore, the IMF thinks paying for Russian gas out of Ukraine’s foreign reserves is possible,” Mr Putin said.

Next, roll up for the funny mirrors and the wobbly walk:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/globalbusiness/6474614/Russias-11bn-UK-bond-bid.html 

“Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin needs Western money to rebuild his economy, while Lord Mandelson is keen to exploit trading opportunities

Mandy and keen to exploit are pretty well synonymous – with Blair right behind him, I’ll bet.
Oh hang on, what did Putin say yesterday when he urged the EU to lend Ukraine the money and accused it of being ungenerous? “Let the Europeans throw in a lousy billion. Why have they gotten so stingy down there? Let them get something out of their pockets.”
Candyfloss anyone?
As the Observer reported on Sunday, there is a scenario where the UK could run out of gas within six hours this winter – last winter, the UK was left with only three days of reserves when foreign energy companies started exporting gas to supply their European customers after Russia cut supplies that used a pipeline through Ukraine.
So, will the threat of another gas shortage be the next H1-crunch-anyone to be dragged squealing out of the pigpen? And who’s first with the coconuts?
By lilac  || November 3, 2009 at 19:20 GMT
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UPDATED Economic Data Table

Please click here for the updated economic data table for today. I have included the GMT times as well as the data released in Japan this morning. Nothing else to pay attention to for a few hours yet.

Have a look at the table to familiarise yourself with what is out in Europe and the US on Friday.

By Kyle R Shortland  || April 24, 2009 at 00:37 GMT
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US Bailout Watchdog Barofsky says that Bernanke, Paulson roles in BofA deal not as crystal clear as reports imply

More words on this whole Bk of America and Merill Lynch fiasco with the US bailout watchdog Barofsky saying that he was looking into reports that BofA was pressured on the Merrill deal and that Bernanke and Paulson’s roles in the deal were not as crystal clear as reports imply.

Meanwhile S&P futures are back into positive territory, while the Dow struggles as shares in IBM fall.

Eur/Usd meanders at 1.3075.

By Mark Mitchell  || April 23, 2009 at 17:07 GMT
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Upcoming Global Economic Data

Please find attached today’s list of economic goings on throughout the world for Thursday 23 April 2009. Not a lot to pay attention to in Asian trading but plenty to keep us amused from 07:00 GMT onwards in Europe this evening.

Please have a read to familiarise yourself with what is in store as we could have some interesting moves tonight on the back of the data.

By Kyle R Shortland  || April 22, 2009 at 23:08 GMT
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NZ Visitor Arrivals Fall In March

The seasonally adjusted visitor arrivals numbers for our good friends in NY have just come out and indicate they fell 0.5% in March from Feb and were 3.6% lower than the same time last year. Apparently the flow of migrants into NZ has been falling slightly since Mid 2007.

By Kyle R Shortland  || April 20, 2009 at 23:08 GMT
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