The housing market may now be trapped in a long-term bear market and may not bounce back to the peaks it reached in 2007 for generations, a leading economic consultancy has warned.

Cable has given back a chunk of yesterday’s gains, down about a full cent from recent high, presently at 1.5290.

Some event risk for sterling today in form of February public finances data.  Will also be interesting to see mortgage approvals given the recent slowdown in the UK housing sector.

Release calender as follows:

09:30 GMT: UK major bank mortgage approvals for February expected 54k

09:30 GMT: PSNB for February expected 14 bln; PSNCR expected 11.0 bln

09:30 GMT: M4 money supppply for February expected +0.8% m/m

11:00 GMT: UK CBI industrial trends for March

09:30 GMT: UK

Cable lost a little ground during Asian trade, presently down at 1.5165 from a North American close Friday up around 1.5195.  EUR/GBP is steady around .9060.

Given latest developments sterling is showing some resilience.  Latest weekend opinion polls continue to suggest at hung parliament being the most likely outcome of the general election, while UK rightmove house price data for March didn’t make very palatable reading.  The 0.1% m/m rise was the lowest ever recorded in March and backs up recent data suggesting the UK housing market could be in for a tough time as the year progresses.

Elsewhere Moodys rating agency has come out warning on Uk’s AAA rating.

Will be interesting to see whether this resilience lasts as European trading gets underway.

Sterling has weakened across the board during the Asian session, cable presently down at 1.5015 from a North American close Monday up around 1.5065 while EUR/GBP is up at .9068 from around .9045.

A special poll carried out for The Times newspaper shows Labour and the Conservatives running neck and neck in key marginal seats which will determine the general election, raising further the spectre of a hung parliament.

UK RICS house price balance for February came in at 17, demonstrably lower than the median forecast of 30 and the lowest reading since August 2009.  Looks like the strong house price rally seen in 2009 has hit the buffers.

Finally Moody’s has warned that wind down of UK banking bailout programmes could result in rating downgrades for some UK banks.

Not much of UK economic data front today:

09:30 GMT:  UK trade for January.  Visible -7000; Non EU -3350;  total -3000

Sovereign buy interest tipped down at 1.4950.

Much worse than median forecast of +0.3%.  +4.5% in 3 months to February vs year ago, weaker than median forecast +5.0%.

Meanwhile new car registrations +26.4 y/y in February.

Cable has recovered from session low 1.5024, presently back at 1.5050.

Interesting. I have to admit the recovery in UK house prices has surprised me a little bit and I expect we’ll see another swoon, possibly a sharp one, down the road.