Technical Analysis

And back up goes cable....

Speech ends and the price rebounds back above its support turned resistance levels The UK PMs speech finished and the selling seen through her speech was reversed. The price moved back above the 100 hour MA (at 1.35273) and sellers turned back to buyers. The 100 bar MA on the 5-minute chart has stalled the rally so far.

More Technical Analysis

SP Fri 22 Sep

US stocks are a bit lower in early trading

Down but recovering The US major stock indices are down but not by much US yields are down. Those are at low levels for the day.

US-CRUDE-OIL-FUTURES Thu 21 Sep

US WTI crude oil futures settle at $50.55, down -$0.14

Falls -0.28% on the day The US crude oil futures are settling the day down -0.14 cents on the day or -0.28% at $50.55.  The low reached $50.07. The high reached $50.81.

EURGBP Thu 21 Sep

Forex technical analysis: EURGBP resets a ceiling at the 100 hour MA

Below 50% of years range too The EURGBP is moving lower and trades near session lows. The pair did rally into the London morning session but stalled just ahead of the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below). That is a bearish play and sellers took control.

EURUSD Thu 21 Sep

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD stalls in MA area (but just barely)

Peaks against the 100 hour MA The EURUSD moved higher over the last hour or so, and in the process moved above the 38.2% at 1.19258. The break, led to a run higher. That run peaked against the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) and 1.19549 (the high reached 1.19534).   That moving average was the highest of three including the 100 hour moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.19393, and the 200 hour moving average at 1.19462 (the 100 hour MA at 1.19544 was the highest).   Although the high peaked right against the highest MA (a move above might have triggered stops), the sellers did lean, and the price has rotated lower ().

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BITCOIN Thu 21 Sep

Bitcoin technical analysis: Break higher yesterday...stalled.

Selling intensifies on break of converged 100 and 200 hour MAs Yesterday, bitcoin moved above the 200 hour MA and a trend line and I commented ""   

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GBPUSD Thu 21 Sep

Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD gets a boost on PM May comments

Moves above key resistance area said the UK would be willing to pay 20 bln Euro during transition period, but only if it has access to single market and some form of customs union.

USDJPY Thu 21 Sep

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY tests and bounces off the 200 day MA

Buyers showed up at the MA line.  The USDJPY fell to the key 200 day MA at 112.15 level, tested and bounced.  We currently trade at 112.37 (). see earlier post outlining the level

AUDUSD Thu 21 Sep

Forex technical analysis: AUDSUSD falls back below 200 week MA

The 0.79476 level is home to the 200 week MA AND the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart.   The AUDUSD cracked and closed above the 200 week MA for the 1st time since May 2013 two weeks ago. Last week, the price closed lower but held the 200 week MA. 

GBPUSD Thu 21 Sep

Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD waffles in a narrow trading range

Post-Brexit corrective highs below.  The 100 hour MA and trend line above. I have spoken a lot about the post-Brexit highs from June, July and September on this site of late. On Friday last week, the price moved above the 1.3443-798 area. That is where the swing highs were reached AFTER Brexit (see daily chart below). 

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EURUSD Thu 21 Sep

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD retracing fall from FOMC. Draghi speaks.

Stalls ahead of the 38.2% of the move lower The EURUSD is now higher on the day (closed at 1.1890) but below the 38.2% retracement of the move down from yesterday's high (at 1.1926).  ECB Dragh is scheduled to speak in Frankfurt at the bottom of the hour.  His comments may impact the pair.

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USDJPY Thu 21 Sep

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY stalls ahead of swing levels from Jun/Jul

Break above topside trend line failed. 200 day MA key support now at 112.15 There is a lot going on in the USDJPY chart. The 4-hour chart below shows that the pair moved above a topside trend line (currently at 112.52) yesterday and into today.  However, the break and momentum approached another key area defined by swing highs and lows going back to June and July.  During that time the price broke higher, retraced and formed a floor at 112.81-93, only to break that floor and trend lower. 

US-INITIAL-JOBLESS-CLAIMS Thu 21 Sep

US initial jobless claims 259K vs 302K estimate

Continuing claims 1980K vs 1975K estimate The US initial jobless claims came in at 259K vs 302K estimate.   The data is better but with the hurricane effects it is hard to get excited about the beat.

FOREX Thu 21 Sep

The EUR is the strongest while the AUD is the weakest as NA trader start the day

The USD is continuing it's rally post-FOMC As North American traders enter for the trading day, the EUR is the strongest, while the AUD is the weakest.  The USD is continuing it's move higher after the Fed announced the start of the balance sheet unwind, and said they expect 1 more hike in 2017 and 3 in 2018.  The commodity currencies are hurting on the back of the stronger dollar.   Spot gold is down another -$8.00 on the day. It trades at $1293 now.   also helped to pressure the currency. 

SP Wed 20 Sep

Dow and S&P close at record levels.

Dow up 9 straight days The Fed started the balance sheet reduction (albeit at a slowww rate) and signaled their expectation for 1 more hike in 2017 and 3 in 2018, but the stocks did not flinch...much.  The S&P and the Dow closed at record levels. The Nasdaq did shed -5.28 points but recovered by 42 points from the lows.  A down day, feels like an up day.

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GBPUSD Wed 20 Sep

Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD stays in the post-Brexit corrective high area

That's a mouthful As outlined in earlier posts before the decision, the post-Brexit highs came in at 1.3532, 1.3479 and 1.34439 (from June 2016, July 2016, and September 2016).

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FOREX Wed 20 Sep

A snapshot of the winners and losers in the currency market

Before and after the FOMC decision As London left for the day, the USD was the weakest currency - falling against all the major currency pairs. The picture after the FOMC shows the dollars rebound. The NZDUSD had a huge head start against the USD earlier. The NZDUSD has moved back toward the prior day's close but it remains above.  So that currency remains the strongest on the day.   The large fall vs the AUDUSD (down -0.72%) is now back to unchanged on the day.  The EURUSD which was near unchanged levels at the London close, is now showing a 0.87% rise in the USD (fall of -0.87% in the EURUSD).  

GOLD Wed 20 Sep

Gold cracks back below the $1300 on the higher dollar

Trades at the lowest level since August 28th The price of spot gold has cracked back below the $1300 on the run up in the dollar after the FOMC decision. The precious metal is trading at the lowest level since August 28th.

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EURUSD Wed 20 Sep

The EURUSD marches lower. Cracks target levels. 1.1876 up next.

Fall below the 100 and 200 hour MA/50% retracement turned buyer into sellers The EURUSDs move below the key level defined by the 100 and 200 hour MA and the 50% at the 1.1960 level. The break turned the bias from more bullish to more bearish. The buyers turned to sellers. 

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