Technical Analysis

USDCAD seeing some buying into the week's close

Trades to the highest level since the rate hike on Wednesday It is late, but the USDCAD is seeing some late Friday buying.  The price has just moved above the 1.2500 level for the first times since the "dovish" rate hike on Wednesday.  The low today stalled near recent swing lows going back to January 9th. 

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FOREX Fri 19 Jan

The JPY is the strongest while the NZD is the weakest as NA traders enter

The USD is mixed  As North American traders enter for the day, the JPY is the strongest, while the NZD is the weakest.  The USD is mixed with modest gains vs the GBP, CAD, and NZD, and modest losses vs the EUR, JPY and AUD. The CHF is sitting near unchanged.  Today is D-Day for the US government.  The House has sent the "kick the can" bill to the Senate, where the 60 votes needed to block a filibuster are not there (yet?).  If not passed by midnight tonight, the government will start shutting down "nonessential operations".  

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EURJPY Thu 18 Jan

Forex technical analysis: EURJPY cracks below a trend line but 100 hour MA stalls the fall

Buyers come in on queue Be aware.  The EURJPY hit a resistance ceiling area earlier in the session and rotated lower. However, Be aware that although the price fell below a trend line, the 100 and moving average stole the full at the 135.55 level. That has given the dip buyers a reason to stick a toe back in the buying water and the price has moved back higher. 

USDJPY Thu 18 Jan

USDJPY dips on comments of McConnell planning for a shutdown

Price falls below 100 hour MA. A news report from Politico saying Sen Majority Leader McConnnel is planning for a govt shutdown, has sent the dollar lower. The USDJPY fell below its 100 at the 110.84 level.  That level is back to being resistance after failing to hold support. 

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AUDUSD Thu 18 Jan

Technical levels are defining the trading range for the AUDUSD

Consolidates  near the highs The AUDUSD tested a topside trend line in the run up yesterday. That trend line (it is the topside channel trend line actually) was actually broken by about 5 pips, but the market tired at the key technical level, and the late day dollar buying sent the pair down too.  

USDJPY Thu 18 Jan

USDJPY tests MA support target....

100 hour MA comes in at 111.84.   The USDJPY moved below the 111.02-04 and went another 18 or so pips down to a low of 111.844. At that area, sits the 100 hour MA at 111.842. There has been a little stall at the level as traders ponders the next move (). 

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USDJPY Thu 18 Jan

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY tests trend line support

Trades at day lows. The USDJPY is down testing a trend line on the hourly chart at 111.045 (see chart below). On the daily chart the 50% of the move up from the September low comes in at 111.02. So there is a couple of reasons that traders might be leaning against the level.   Be aware...

2
EURUSD Thu 18 Jan

Looking for a breakout trade? EURUSD swings back higher and above 100 hour MA, but below trend line resistance

Corrects to retracement levels and bounces The EURUSD continued the move lower that took the price back below its 100 hour MA yesterday.  That fall on the hourly chart stalled at the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the Jan 9 low.  That low came in at 1.2167. The low for the day reached 1.2164.

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EURUSD Thu 18 Jan

Looking for a breakout trade? EURUSD swings back higher and above 100H MA

Corrects to retracement levels and bounces The EURUSD continued the move lower that took the price back below its 100 hour MA yesterday.  That fall on the hourly chart stalled at the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the Jan 9 low.  That low came in at 1.2167. The low for the day reached 1.2164. 

2
FOREX Thu 18 Jan

The CHF is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as NA traders enter

The USD is trading weaker at the start of the session As the North American traders enter for the day, the CHF is the strongest currency, while the CAD is the weakest.  The USD is weaker and reversing the afternoon gains from yesterday in the major US pairs.  

GPBUSD Wed 17 Jan

GBPUSD trend run stalls but look for the buyers on dips

The last leg was 120 pips The run higher in the GBPUSD took the price from 1.38207 to a high of 1.3941. That is about 120 pips.  It took about an hour and 50 minutes. 

5
EURGBP Wed 17 Jan

The EURGBP trades below 200 day MA

Tests the January 2018 low Helping the GBPUSDs run up is a weaker EURGBP. Looking at the daily chart above, the price has moved back below the 200 day MA at 0.88296. Earlier in the month the price traded below the MA line but could not sustain selling. The low for the month reached 0.8808. 

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GBPUSD Wed 17 Jan

What are the next targets in the runaway GBPUSD?

1.3956 and then 1.4004-11 are the next in line The GBPUSD is on a runaway mission to the upside and begs the question "What are the next targets?" Looking at the daily chart, the 50% of the move down from the June 2015 high is approaching at 1.39563.  Above that are swing lows from April 2016 in June 2016 at 1.4004 and 1.4011 respectively.  

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EURUSD Wed 17 Jan

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD is higher on the day

Following the dollar lower The EURUSD stalled the fall earlier in the NY session at the lows from yesterday. The low was also above the 100 hour MA (blue line step line in the chart below)) which was in jeopardy of breaking. That was not to be, and the price has been wandering higher since then. 

2
AUDUSD Wed 17 Jan

Forex technical analysis: AUDUSD tests 0.8000 again

Retraces back to the highs of the day The AUDUSD moved up to a high of 0.79986 in the Asia-Paciific session, stalled against the 0.8000 area, and fell to 0.7939. That retracement level was where the 38.2% of the move up from Friday's swing low (the last leg higher). The buyers remain in control.

USDJPY Wed 17 Jan

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY can't crack the 100 hour MA

It is pushing against the 100 hour MA but so far stalling... The USDJPY got within 4 pips of the 100 hour MA earlier.  It just got right up to the MA line at 110.86 and is still having a problem breaking through.  

GBPUSD Wed 17 Jan

Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD trades above next upside target

Swing low from February 2016 is taken out, but there is some stall/apprehension. The GBPUSD has moved to new session highs and in the process has moved above a swing low going back to February 2016.  That swing low reached 1.38348. Earlier today in the Asian session, the price moved to 1.38353 (just above the key level), but found sellers that took the price down to 1.3755. 

USDCAD Wed 17 Jan

USDCAD rocks back and forth after BOC rate hike

Hike but with concerns about NAFTA The BOC hiked by the expected 25 basis points but has concerns about NAFTA. The price action took the price lower initially, with by price low coming in at the Jan 5 low at 1.2354.

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USDCAD Wed 17 Jan

Forex technical analysis: USDCAD traders awaits the hike and reaction

...Risk is if they surprise with near 90% hike priced in Will the BOC go against the market and not hike, preferring to wait for NAFTA?  That is the wild card as the IOS market has pretty much priced in a hike at 10 AM ET/1500 GMT.


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