Technical Analysis

Gold up about $15 on the day. Highest level since October 17th

Tests 38.2% of the move down from September high The price of gold has been waffling higher and lower since mid October. The low reached $1263.35 on October 27. That low was higher than the low from October 6th and subsequent lows since then have also been higher. The price since October 23rd has moved above and below the 100 day MA.  There have only been two trading days since that time when the price did not trade the 100 day MA. That says to me that the market does not know what to do.  So it happily hangs around the 100 day MA

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NZDUSD Fri 17 Nov

Forex technical analysis: NZDUSD makes a key break...

Falls below triple bottom. The NZDUSD fell below a triple bottom at the 0.6817 level today and the price ran lower. That break is real folks.  What was a floor now becomes a ceiling.  Stay below is more bearish. 

GBPUSD Fri 17 Nov

Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD back to MA cluster area.

The first of a series of MA being tested as the pair rotates back lower The GBPUSD is now trading lower on the day, after a run higher (and a break to a new 11 day highs failed. The pair completed its up and down lap. Concerns about Brexit seem to be the catalyst (the stock excuse for a sell off but with truth to it). 

USDCAD Fri 17 Nov

Forex technical analysis: USDCAD makes new week highs

CPI as expected but remains well below targets The Canada CPI came in as expected but the YoY numbers remain well below targets for the Bank of Canada. The USDCAD has moved to new session highs (lower CAD).  The pairs trading at 10 day highs. 

SP Thu 16 Nov

US stocks surge with the Nasdaq closing at record levels

Walmart surges >10 % on earnings and forward guidance. The major US stock indices are ending the day with strong gains, rebounding after six days lower. The gains were helped by Walmart and Cisco which reported stronger than expected earnings and revenues, and the US House of Representatives passing of their tax reform bill with ease.  The NASDAQ composite index closed at a record level.  

DOLLAR Thu 16 Nov

A technical look at some major pairs as the day comes to a close

Dollar mixed in trading today USDCAD The USDCAD mad it down to the trend line and 100 (currently 1.2734) and 200 (1.2730) hour MAs. You can add the 50% of the move up from last week's low at 1.2727. The low came in at 1.2727 and bounced. Yesterday, the high price stalled at the 50% of the move down from the October 31 high (not show but level came in at 1.27989).  In the new day, those are the extremes.  It can go either way, depending on how you look at the market, but the holding of the cluster of support gives the buyers a little more of the nod.

USDJPY Thu 16 Nov

USDJPY rising...not running but moving back higher

Completes up and down lap The USDJPY fell to a NY session low at 112.726. That completed the UP and DOWN lap for the day (the low was 112.74 in the 1st hour of trading today.


A snapshot of the financial markets as the European stocks close for the day

European stocks end the session higher. Ten-year yields in Europe little changed (mostly) A snapshot of the markets as the European major indices close for the day are showing:

STOCKS Thu 16 Nov

US stocks trade to new highs

NASDAQ up 1.16% now.. The US Major indices continue to move higher - making new highs in the last few minutes of trading Looking at the hourly chart of the NASDAQ composite index below, the pair traded between the 200 hour and 100 hour moving average and trading yesterday.  Today the price gap above the 100 hour moving average at 6735.75 (blue line in the chart above) , and it did not take long to move up to 50 hour moving average at 6746.46 (white line in the chart above).  The high price for the NASDAQ reached 6795.51 back on November 7.

EIA Thu 16 Nov

EIA natural gas storage change -18bcf

Estimate was for a drawdown of -15bcf US natural gas futures extend gains.  It is up 0.9% after EIA reports slightly bigger than expected storage drawdown

USDJPY Thu 16 Nov

Forex technical analysis: USDJPY moves to the red on the day.

Trades at London/New York low The USDJPY has continued to wander lowers and has now moved below the close from yesterday that 112.85. So we are now in the red.  The pair is also trading at new London and NY session lows. The low for the day reached 112.74 in the early Asian session.  After consolidating above and below 200 bar MA (green line), the trend line and 38.2% on the 5-minute chart below, the sellers took charge and pushed lower.   

SP Thu 16 Nov

Stocks snap back after fall over the last few day decline

Walmart earnings help.   Walmart earnings beat this morning on both the top and bottom lines. Gains were as a result of strong online sales.  Same-store sales rose for the 13th consecutive quarter, and the retail raised  its fiscal year 2018 earnings-per-share guidance.  All good news.  Walmart shares are up over 6%.

DOLLAR Thu 16 Nov

The US dollar is a little lower after the data

CAD stronger after stronger-than-expected manufacturing sales The USD is down a little after the US data today.  The Philly Fed business outlook get to 22.7 versus 24.6.  Initial jobless claims were higher at 249K versus 235K.

FOREX Thu 16 Nov

The GBP is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest

Near the start of the US trading day The GBP is the strongest currency near the start of the NA trading day, while the NZD is the weakest. The changes and ranges remain somewhat limited but the leading currencies are at their extremes. The GBPUSD is trading at the highs up 26 pips, after being lower earlier. The NZDUSD is trading down -37 points and at the lows. It has been down since the very start of the trading day.

EURUSD Thu 16 Nov

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD waffling but may be trying to base more....

Consolidates in up and down trading so far today The EURUSD is consolidating in a narrow 33 pip trading range as the market decides higher or lower from here.

USD Thu 16 Nov

A snapshot of the winners and losers so far today

The USD is the strongest. The NZD is the weakest. A snapshot of the strongest and weakest is showing the USD is the strongest currency so far today, while the NZD is the weakest.

GBPUSD Thu 16 Nov

Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD hanging between MA levels.

Awaits the retail sales at 0930 GMT. The UK retail sales will be out at the bottom of the hour and the GBPUSD seems to be continuing to buy time between moving averages.

EURGBP Wed 15 Nov

Forex technical analysis: EURGBP returns back to support

100 day MA and swing high and swing low The EURGBP has had a bumpy and wild ride of it over the last 8 or so weeks.  In the current week, the price chopped higher and in the process moved above the swing high from Nov 2 and the 100 day MA (blue overlay line on the 4-hour chart below at 0.89478 currently). 

US-DOLLAR Wed 15 Nov

Activity has slowed down in NY afternoon trading, but there are clues in the charts...

A look around the markets The activity has slowed down as the NY afternoon session gets going. EURUSD: The EURUSD eventually fell away from the 200 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart (Green line in the chart above). The full took the price toward the 38.2% retracement and other swing levels at the 1.17847 area. The low could only get to 1.1789.  We are currently trading at 1.1798 and looking like shorts might be getting tired for now.  The 200 bar MA will be eyed above on a wander higher. 


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