Forex technical analysis: EURUSD moves back in the black in down and up day

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | eurusd

Weaker housing. Fed comments

Dudley and Kaplan are speaking on a panel and housing starts were weaker. I can't say the comments are a big surprise but the EURUSD has rallied back higher and has traded back in the black on the day (closed at 1.1763) in a down and up day. 

Looking at the hourly chart above the pair in the Asian session peaked right at the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and started its fall. That is the upside resistance now.  The low took out the low from yesterday at 1.17356 (the low today reached 1.1729) but momentum could not be sustained.. 

The run back higher looks back toward the midpoint of the month's trading range at 1.17739 and that 100 bar MA on the 4-hour at 1.17768.  Those levels (and other MAs including the 200 hour MA at 1.17907 and the 100 hour MA at around the 1.1800) are a minefield of resistance for the pair. The pair is trading around the unchanged level at 1.1763 as traders figure out what to do next.  

If the upside is the new bias intraday, the 1.1754-55 level should stall any fall (risk).  Looking at the 5-minute chart below, the market has been reactionary to that MA. Also yesterday, that area was a floor/ceiling before breaking back above (see chart below).

The EURUSD market is choppy. The last run is to the upside. In choppy markets, anything can happen.  You can trade the levels or not trade at all.  It is often best to be patient and let the market come to your level.  Forcing and feeling uncomfortable is not the best scenario.