Last two days has seen breaks of key support fail. Is the 3rd time the chart today.

The USDJPY has been frustrating (for me at least) over the last few days as a cluster of technical levels were broken, but then failed.

The 200 day MA, the 100 day MA, the 200 bar MA on the 4 hour chart and the 50% retracement of the move up from the June 2017 low gathered in a relatively narrow area (today 111.64-92. The 100 and 200 day MA area is 111.69-92 today). On Wednesday, the area (it was more narrow at the time) was busted for 2 hour bars, and the rebound was on. Yesterday, the low extreme (at 111.64) saw the price trade below the for 3 hourly bars but with zero closes below it.

That brings us to today. The last 5 hourly bars are trading below the 111.64 level. It is getting more serious. The low has extended to a lower trend line currently at 111.26 (see blue circles in the chart above). A move below that trend line should solicit more selling in the pair. Looking at the daily chart below, the 110.96-111.00 area is the next targets. The 61.8% comes in at 110.967. The low from June 22 comes in near that level. The 111.00 is a natural support level.

Risk for the shorts intraday can be centered around the prior day lows OR the 111.64-69 area where the 50% and the 100 day MA are found. If the price is going lower staying below the cluster of support is required after all. A move above the two lowest of that cluster muddies the water (especially after the extension today).

Is the 3rd time the charm for the USDJPY? It better be.

Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on you. Fool me three times? The market may really start to get angry (and it could/should lead to a bigger corrective move higher).