Forex technical analysis: USDCAD up on the day but staying in up and down range

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdcad

Yesterday, the price stalled ahead of the 200 hour MA/38.2% retracement

The USDCAD is higher on the day, but let's face it, the pair is not exactly racing in one direction or another. The last 6 trading days has seen the price range in a 105 pip trading range. The high reached 1.2891 on Tuesday. The low yesterday stalled just ahead of the low of the range at the 1.27866 level. That level was also home to the 200 hour MA (currently at 1.27972) and the 38.2% of the move from the December 5 low at 1.27866.  


The price moved above the 100 hour MA at 1.28483 last hour but fell short of a topside trend line at 1.2865. That level and a ceiling of swing highs at 1.28786 will be upside levels to get to and through.  The highs at 1.28916 and the 1.2906 are also topside targets.  

Right now, with the price failing on the break of the 100 hour MA (we trade at 1.2840 as I type below the 100 hour MA at 1.2848), look for sellers to take back some intraday control. The buyers has now been above that MA twice today. Each failed.    Buyers have had their shot and in an up and down market environment, it might/should be a clue to try the other way again.  Stay below the 100 hour MA is the best scenario for that idea....

Having said that, the sellers have something to prove too. The 200 hour MA at 1.2797 and the 38.2% at 1.27866 needs to be busted. That too might be difficult as the market waffles back and forth, and does not seem to be too excited on either direction.