Forex technical analysis: USDCHF moves above the 200 day MA

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdchf

Have not closed above 200 day MA since May 15th

The USDCHF has moved above the 200 day MA today after testing the level yesterday and backing off. 


Looking at the daily chart above, the low today based at the 38.2% of the move down from the December 2016 high at 0.97729. That level was also home to a number of swing levels as well in June, July and September. That was a key support level and that level held support. Bullish.

The run higher moved above the 200 day MA at 0.9814 in the London morning session. There has been a retest in the NY session (low reached 0.9812), but buyers came in against the level and the price has rebounded back higher (trade at 0.96269).  The high for the day has reached 0.9636 so far today. 

The pair has not closed above the 200 day MA since May 15th.  The level is a close risk level for buyers now. Stay above is more bullish. Move below and the buyers may start to question the break.

Overall,
  • I like the holding of the 38.2% and the other swing levels
  • I like the break of the 200 day MA
  • I will like it more if the pair can stay above that MA level and start to move away from the level toward the 50% retracement at 0.98817.
Watch the 200 day MA level.  It will be key for the buyer/bulls.