Forex technical analysis: USDCHF tests 200 bar MA on 4-hour chart. Bounces

Technical Analysis

Author: Greg Michalowski | usdchf

Near 50% retracement of last move higher.

The USDCHF this week, 

  • Stayed below the 1.0000 parity level. The high on Monday stalled at 0.9986.
  • Defined a downward sloping trend line this week and tested that line on Thursday and again today. That trend line comes in at 0.9927 now.  
  • Broke below a longer term trend line and stayed below (goes back to September 8th low)
Those are bearish developments. 

The not so bearish developments are that the USDCHF
  • Fell below the 50% of the move up from the last swing move higher at 0.98706, and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour but failed on Wednesday
  • Today, it retested the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.98772 currently.  
So bulls can say support held.
Bears can say resistance held.
Traders are trading.   

We sit closer to the lower support at the 200 bar MA and the 50%, but sellers will need to see a crack below those levels to really feel they are in more control. A move toward the 61.8% at 0.9831 and then the key 200 day MA at 0.98066 become targets.

ON the topside the trend line at 0.9927 will be eyed fora break higher. In which case the 0.9938 and 100 bar MA on the 4-hour at 0.9964 become targets.