GBPUSD in a holding pattern - bias for a move lower - levels and risks ahead

Technical Analysis

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | gbpusd

Chart and technical analysis via Lloyds note

Prices sit in a holding pattern over 1.2845 support.
  • While under 1.2930 falling resistance, the bias is for another test down to next support in the 1.2800-1.2735 region.
  • A move through 1.2930 would risk a broader correction, but this would probably be on the back of a broader USD sell-off. 1.3075-1.3150 is important resistance ahead of the 1.3270 highs.
Long term, we believe we are in the final stages of the cycle that started back in 2007 at 2.1160.
  • We are still monitoring price action to determine whether the 1.1490 "flash crash" move was a significant low, or not.
  • In any case, over the medium term we look for a range, although that range seems to have shifted to 1.25-1.35 (from 1.20-1.30)

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Note dated 21 August 2017