Sharp declines in the Atlanta Fed and NY Fed 4Q GDP estimates this week
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 4Q growth fell to 0.3% from 1% last Friday. The fall is congruent with the NY Feds decline to 0.4% from 0.7% last week. The US GDP growth numbers are QoQ changes that are annualized. So the gains are barely above 0.0% for the quarter.
In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on November 15, down from 1.0 percent on November 8. After this morning's retail trade releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, and this morning's industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.1 percent and -2.3 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent and -4.4 percent, respectively.
The next report will be on Tuesday
The stock market has dipped off its high levels but still remains solidly higher with the S&P index up 0.55% and the NASDAQ composite index up 0.6%. All major indices are trading at record high levels.
