Small up tick in the Q4
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker for 4Q growth rises slightly to 11.2% from 11.1% on December 1. In their own words:
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 11.2 percent on December 4, up from 11.1 percent on December 1. After recent releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, increases in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and fourth-quarter real government spending growth from 46.6 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively, to 50.5 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, were slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 6.1 percent to 5.4 percent.
In contrast, the NY Fed Nowcast estimate for 4Q growth today dipped to 2.52% from 2.87% last week.
As a guide, the NY Fed model for 3Q growth ended at 13.59%. The actual GDP came in at 33.1%.
The Atlanta Fed model in the 3Q forecasted growth at 37% vs. the 33.1% actual GDP number.
So New York model under reports GDP or so it seems, while the Atlanta Fed over reports the expected GDP.
