Price near unchanged on the day but off Friday high.
The AUDUSD closed on Monday near 0.7250. The price is trading around that level as we head into the close.
Looking at the daily chart, the high from Friday stalled near a topside trend line at 0.7305. The high price reached 0.73031. Close enough.
Sellers stalled the rally that has seen the price move from 0.70847 on September 11, to the Friday high (Sept 21). If the price is to go higher, that trend line needs to be broken at 0.7290 now (and moving lower), along with the high from Friday. If done, a further move toward a test of the 100 day MA may be in the future for the pair (at 0.7386).
Drilling to the hourly chart below, the fall lower from the daily trend line high, increased the corrective bearish bias with a move below the 100 hour MA (blue line on the chart below) yesterday.
Today that bearish/corrective price action took the price to a swing area going back to September 13 at 0.7229-0.72348 (see yellow area in the chart below). The price fall stalled, the price moved back higher toward the unchanged area.
So, that now leaves us below the 100 hour MA (blue line at 0.7267), but above the swing area (0.7229-348). You can add the rising 200 hour MA at 0.72317 in the support mix (green line).
For traders that narrows the focus on those two areas. The "market" is waiting for the next push.
Big picture,
- We know the trend on the daily is down,
From the intermediate view:
- The price started to correct higher in September and move away from the 100 and 200 hour MA to the upside.
More recently,however, resistance was hit on the daily at the topside trend line (bearish), and the price fell below the 100 hour MA (bearish). However, support held on the hourly too.
So, a battle is being waged. The winner should be when "the market" kicks the price through one of the hourly MA lines. Until then, let the punches be thrown, because that is what we are looking at from a technical perspective.
