The BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPCc) meet on Thursday June 21

Two quick what to expects:

TD:

  • We expect the MPC to keep policy on hold and shy away from comments about market expectations of future rate hikes.
  • But in reaffirming its view that the 2018 Q1 growth slowdown was temporary, markets might interpret that as a signal that an August hike is more likely.
  • We expect a 7-2 vote, but risks of a 6-3 vote should not be discounted.

NAB:

  • markets are expecting the policy rate to remain unchanged
  • markets will be watching to see if the BoE's outlook for the economy has been revised up, following very strong retail sales data (May: +1.3% m/m, mkt: +0.5%)
  • In combination with the blowout +1.88% m/m rise in April, these data are pointing to a rebound in GDP for Q2, after a softerQ1