The Bank of Japan meet Thursday 26April and Friday 27 April, some bank previews.

Any bolding below is mine

Deutsche Bank:

  • Our Japanese team expects the BoJ to maintain its current policy stance, even with two new Deputy Governors participating in the meeting for the first time. T
  • hey expect that the Outlook Report will reaffirm the previous forecasts for real GDP growth and core CPI inflation in FY18 and FY19. They suspect that the median value of the newly added real GDP growth forecast for FY2020 will be 0.9% (in line with the Bank's estimate of the potential growth rate). They expect the core CPI inflation forecast for FY20 to come in at 1.9% (excluding the effect of the consumption tax hike).

Daiwa:

Despite the change in personnel it seems very likely that the Board will make no changes to its key policy settings

  • i.e. the -0.1% interest rate on banks' marginal excess reserves a
  • nd its pledge to keep 10Y JGB yields at 0%.

We expect that Goushi Kataoka will continue to argue for further policy easing.

The BoJ will also certainly repeat its intention to maintain its JGB purchases 'at more or less the current pace', but it remains to be seen whether this continues to be described as an annual increase in its holdings of about ¥80trn (so far this year the Bank's purchases are running at less than half that pace).

  • And despite increased criticism of the policy - some of which is reportedly shared internally at the BoJ - the Bank will also very likely re-commit to increase its ETF holdings at an annual rate of ¥6trn.

Kuroda's press conference will still be scrutinised for signals of possible evolution of policy.

The BoJ's Outlook Report will be watched too, although this seems unlikely to offer catalysts for change, even if the risk distribution may have widened in light of recent events.

  • With Q1 GDP growth shaping up to be soft - possibly even negative - our colleagues in Tokyo think that the median forecast of Policy Board members for GDP in FY17 could edge down 0.1ppt to 1.8%Y/Y. But with the tone of most key indicators - including, crucially, the BoJ's Tankan - remaining upbeat, they expect that the forecast for FY18 will be left at 1.4%Y/Y while that for FY19 might be nudged higher to 0.8%Y/Y.
  • As regards inflation, the firmer yen means the forecast for core CPI in FY17 might be lowered by 0.1ppt to 0.7%Y/Y. But our colleagues think the median forecasts for FY18 and FY19 will be unchanged at 1.4%Y/Y and 1.8%Y/Y respectively. And the first published forecast for FY20 might even reveal a median expectation slightly above 2%Y/Y.

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Earlier:

Also, ahead of the BOJ its ECB day today: