Cabinet meeting due at 1400 GMT

So, Theresa May and her cast have managed to agree on a Brexit text with the EU and she's now asking Cabinet to sign off on that later in the day. Chances are she will manage to secure Cabinet approval on the agreement and we will then proceed to a special November summit in Brussels.

All of that sounds good until we get into the details of the agreement. The issue remains that of the Irish border/backstop. By coming to an agreement, May has basically caved in on the EU's demands and this is where the things get tricky. In doing so, she has undermined quite a number of parliament members' demands and also her ally DUP party.

Why does all this matter?

After European leaders give the green light for a deal to proceed, May has to bring back the proposal to parliament to debate and pass a meaningful vote. She needs 320 votes at the Commons to pass the deal but even though there are 315 Conservative party members, she can't really count on all of them to be on her side. Bloomberg has a good graphic on how things look like:

At present, it's not looking likely that she'll be able to win over enough votes to secure a Brexit deal by the end of the year with the current agreement that's on the table. That means we could be heading for potentially a few uncertain outcomes once parliament rejects the deal:

  1. No-deal Brexit
  2. General election
  3. Second referendum

Either way, losing the vote means Theresa May's position as prime minister will be heavily under intense scrutiny and that will result in only negative outcomes for the pound. It's crunch time now so expect plenty of Brexit headlines to come about over the next few weeks.