Buyers are keeping the near-term price bias more neutral after the hot US jobs report pushed the pair lower on Friday
The dollar gained strongly after the US jobs report on Friday and that pushed the pair to test the 200-hour MA (blue line) and the 50.0 retracement level @ 1.1049. Buyers managed to defend the level but since then, not much else is happening.
Price action remains caught in between both key hourly moving averages - which suggests that the near-term bias is more neutral for now - and with the 100-day moving average @ 1.1066 also resting in between, it's making for tepid trading to start the week.
Looking back to Friday, the US jobs report was indubitably great but in the sense that it shows that the US economy remains more resilient. Wage pressures remain modest and that isn't going to see the Fed change its current stance any time soon.
As such, the data isn't going to alter Fed pricing whatsoever and that means the dollar shouldn't see protracted gains unless the economy continues to run hot and that undertone spills over to wages and inflation - which will spur the Fed to move.
Given that scenario, the focus this week will be more towards trade as we count down to the 15 December tariffs deadline. The risk mood will be the key driver affecting trading sentiment in the pair and as such, watch out for any breaks in the near-term price pattern on either side of the 100-day moving average.
