100 day MA at 1.22049
The EURUSD is trading above and below its 100 day MA at 1.22049. The price for the pair breached the 100 day MA yesterday by a few pips (low 1.21968). That was the first time since December 19th.
Today a newer move low was reached at 1.21807, but the price action has seen the price trade above and below the 100 day MA on a number of occasions. We just moved a few pips below that MA line after trading up to the earlier high for the day at 1.2223 and stalling.
Traders seem to be looking for the next push and have decided to stall around the key MA.
The sellers have been in control over the last 3 trading days. The price moved from a high of 1.2400 to the low today of 1.21807. We are consolidating but the corrections have been modest. So I have to keep the sellers more in control, but there is some stall as profit takers take some profit.
The carrot for the shorts is that the pair has been consolidating in narrow trading ranges. Yesterday, the month range was extended from 200 pips. It is now at 233 pips for the month which is still narrow. The 1.2153-64 are swing lows from January and March which are targets (see daily chart). A closer target on that journey comes in at 1.2172 which is the 38.2% of the move up from the November low (see daily).
Where the bear, does not look as bear is above 1.22387 and then the 1.2248-60. If those levels start to trade, the sellers on the break lower - outside the mud that stalled the pair over the last 5- 6 weeks - start to give up on the break (see 4-hour chart below). Right now, it makes sense to give the control to the shorts with an understanding that the 100 day MA is in the way and the market needs the next push.
