For the 2nd week in a row, we go into the final day of the week with the lowest trading range in over 17 years
The lowest low to high trading range for a calendar week (at least on my charts) going back to 2002 is 53 pips.
Last week we stood at 54 pips at the end of day on Thursday. This week the range is even more narrow going into the final day at 51 pips. That would be a 17 year record (my chart does not go back further so it could be even longer).
The price today just extended the range today to 45 pips, but are seeing a bounce. The low from Monday could not be breached at 1.10457.
The good news today is that at the high today, the price action DID extend the trading range for the week by 7 pips. Without the 7 pip extension, the range would be an even more narrow 44 pips. Thank goodness for today's "volatility". ; )
So what happened last week? Did the range get extended on Friday to something more respectable.
On Friday, after a dip at the start of the day, we DID see an extension higher that saw the range move up to 68 pips for the week. Was that respectable? I don't know about that but it was better than 53 pips.
Similar to last week, an extension was made to an even more narrow week today (on Thursday). In the case last week, the extension was to the downside before moving higher. As mentioned, the range extension today, was to the upside (by 7 more pips).
With last week's extension higher on Friday, is that reversed this week? That is, since we made a new high and came off today, do we see the market continue that momentum lower in the new trading day and break to new week lows?
I would not be surprised.
What would help the downside is if there is a correction higher off the just reached low, that stalls against its 100 hour MA and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.10692-72. I would look for sellers to lean against that area with stops above.
If that level can restrict the upside, I would expect sellers to look to take out the 1.10457 low from the 1st hour of trading this week, and work on a more "respectable" range for the week.
Conversely, if the price starts to trade more comfortably above that level, alll bets are off for new lows
