Watch 1.18947 above
The EURUSD is higher on the day. The PMI data remained elevated (Spain 59.0, Italy 60.3, France 58.0, Germany 65.9 and Eurozone 62.8) and German retail sales were better than patient at 4.2% vs 2.0% estimate.
The price moved up to a high of 1.18965. That was just above the swing high going back to July 6 at 1.18947 and an early swing high from Friday's trade at 1.18937. Recall from Friday the price rise ended up extending above the 1.19 level to a high of 1.1908. That tested some swing highs going back to June 28 and June 29. Seller battled the buyers near that 1.1900 area before, sellers took more control and forced the price lower. The low reached near a swing area at 1.18467 to 1.18507 where dip buyers reentered. .
Today, traders rebuilt to the upside before correcting over the last few hours.
The price decline off the high today has seen the price move back to a swing area from July 8 and July 9 between 1.1877 and 1.18815. Hold that area now and we should see another run toward the high with a move above 1.1896, having traders looking toward the 1.1907-11 area (highs from Friday and swing area from June 28/29).
Move below that area at 1.1877 to 1.18815, and some of the "bull" rebound seen in trading today, starts to come out of the market with a probe back down toward the 1.18629 midpoint of the trading range since June 25 the downside target. The rising 100 hour moving averages at 1.18528 and would be another target.
