Failed on break above the 1.1302
The EURUSD traders are whipping the pair around.
Admittedly, the pair is being influenced by the fall/trend lower in the EURGBP. It has reached to the lowest level since June 18 to 0.89663 and in the process has moved below the 61.8% of the move up from the June 9 low at 0.89823. It also fell below a floor area between 0.8997 and 0.90054. When the EURGBP trends, it can "be the tail that wags the dog" for the EURUSD and the GBPUSD.
Whereas the fall in the EURGBP sent the GBPUSD higher earlier, the last run lower has now shifted to the EURUSD.
Helping the EURUSD's move lower was the failure of the move back above the 1.1302 (see chart below).
Recall from and earlier post, the 1.1302 level was the high from last week. Traders also use the level as support yesterday and earlier today before breaking lower. The buyers turned to sellers.
The move back above that level should have solicited more buying. Instead the break moved to 1.1306 and than reversed lower.
What now?
The 100 hour moving average at 1.12668 and the 50% retracement of the move up from last week's low to the high yesterday comes in at 1.12641. Earlier today, like the fail above the 1.1302, the price dipped below its 100 hour moving average only to quickly fail and reverse higher. Tit for tat on the fails below and above technical levels today.
With the ups and downs, and traders "trading" the ranges, there should be some support at the aforementioned technical levels (100 hour moving average of 50% retracement).
However, if they are broken, I would still expect the dip buyers to turn to sellers and look toward the 200 hour moving average at 1.12477 as the next target.
