Only in a 10 pip range
The EURUSD is trying to tilt a little higher in very quiet trading.
The pair fell sharply on Friday, stepping below the 100 day MA, the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the move up from the May 30 high. The price fell below the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (at 1.1231) and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (at 1.12118). The fall stalled near the 61.8% of the move up at 1.12039. The low stalled at 1.12019.
Today, the price has moved up to a high of 1.12162. I can't get to excited about the correction except to say that if you look at the 5 minute chart below, the pair trended lower. ON a trend move, the price action tends to fall, correct to the 38.2-50% area of the fall. Then fall again and correct to the 38.2-50%. Then to fall again and correct toward the 38.2-50% of that falls move.
We are in the 3rd leg of the falls from the Friday high (see yellow areas in the 5 minute price above). That fall took the price from 1.12448 to 1.12019. The 38.2-50% of that move comes in at 1.12185-236.
If the trend is over, getting above that area will be eyed.
Helping the tilt bias to the upside is that the price is above the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.12118 and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at 1.1211. Now the price is only to 1.1216 and there is that correction area above that needs to be broken and stay broken to give buyers more confidence, but there is a little tilt in what is a very quiet start to the week's trading.
So stay above the 1.1211 area and we will see if there can be more upside and if the 1.1218-236 area can be broken. If the price starts to trade below, the 1.1211, the buyers are not really taking control. I would have to tilt the bias back to the trending bears.
Trend Friday's often turn to correction Monday's. The clues come from the price action and technicals.
Admittedly in a 10 or so pip trading range, you can't hang your hat too much on ....well anything. However, because of the reason's cited, there is the start of a little corrective tilt to the upside. Can the buyers keep that tilt?
