There has been a subtle shift in comments

There has been a subtle shift in comments

We have had 10 different Fed speakers in the past two days and there has been a subtle but perceptible change in commentary.

To be sure, the main message has been overwhelmingly consistent: Inflation is transitory and it will be a considerable period before a taper, which will only come when goals are realized. There is a strident -- almost evangelical -- belief in the Fed's newfound mission to help out the downtrodden by running employment hot.

Yet some doubt is creeping in on inflation and you can see it in the latest comments. Today vice chair Richard Clarida said he would take it 'very seriously' if he saw longer term inflation expectations move up. He also preached humility and said he's watching the data very closely.

The change is that policymakers appear less sure of themselves. Like everyone, they've no doubt been surprised by the strength of the recovery.

There's a discernible change this week though towards humility and openness from the strident confidence in projections of low rates from the start of the year. That's the first step towards a more-hawkish change.

If we get more reports like today's CPI, that change will come faster than markets are prepared for.