The latest forecasts from the Dallas Fed President:
- Sees GDP down 4.5% in 2020
- Sees unemployment falling to 8-9%
- Sees Q3 GDP growing at 20% annualized
- Willing to let inflation run at 2.25% to 2.375%
- Willing to see inflation above 2% subject to conditions
The 2.25%-2.375% number is oddly specific but it's also not as high as many fear a 'hot' economy would be. If that's the line in the sand, it would be rate hikes sooner. Then again, if the bond market saw anything near 2% inflation for the longer term, there would have to be a massive repricing in Treasuries.
