Trades at lowest levels since November 27

A lower close today in the GBPUSD (the close was at 1.29197 yesterday) will be the 4th down day in a row for the pair. The price decline has taken the price from 1.30532 the low today of 1.28477. In the process, the low price from earlier for February (and for the year) at 1.2871 was broken. The pair is trading at the lowest level since November 27.

Trades at lowest levels since November 27

Looking at the daily chart, the pair close below its 100 day moving average yesterday (currently at 1.29346. The close yesterday was at 1.29197). The high price today could only get to 1.29278, below that key MA. Staying below has given the sellers the upper hand in trading today. Fundamentally better-than-expected retail sales could not move the GBPUSD back above that moving average level.

Staying on the daily chart, the next downside target would be the end of November swing lows at 1.28207. Below that is the early November low at 1.27682. The percent retracement comes in at 1.27359 and the 200 day moving average at 1.26871 would be targets on the daily chart should the price remain below its 100 day moving average and start taking out the lower targets.

Drilling to the 5 minutes chart below, the spike higher in the London morning session was able to extend back above its 100 and 200 bar moving averages. However that move failed and the selling intensified.

More recently - and perhaps a balance to the intraday bearish view - shows the price did take out the earlier London low but only by a few pips (the break failed). We are seeing a rebound as a result. If the price can get back above the 100 bar moving average 1.2880 it could tilt the intraday bias a little more to the upside with the 50% and the falling 200 bar MA (green line at 1.28971) as other upside targets. Failure to get above, would keep the intraday bias in the sellers control.

GBPUSD on the 5 minute chart.