We are approaching the home stretch now.. Can Boris Johnson get a Brexit deal through the finish line?
The pound staged a solid rally in trading yesterday but owed much to the reported headlines here. At first glance, both sides moving closer towards a Brexit deal sounds good but the key giveaway is that it is a deal that is conditional on DUP support.
That for me, is a big tell about what sort of middle ground the UK and the EU are trying to land on in negotiations.
In my view, the state of Brexit negotiations is quite simple. Boris Johnson has but two choices at the end of the day:
- Sell out the DUP and Northern Ireland in negotiations and risk failing to get a majority in parliament to pass a Brexit deal
- Upset European leaders by insisting that the backstop is the issue and must be removed, leading to a breakdown in negotiations
The Guardian then reported that the draft deal being discussed is one that sees Northern Ireland de jure be in UK customs territory but de facto be in the EU instead. I'm not sure that is enough to get the DUP on board but maybe we'll see red lines be moved.
As such, Boris Johnson is trying to get the DUP and ERG on board with that idea so that he can at least try and command a majority in parliament.
If the UK - at this juncture, DUP - does decide to move on their red lines, the impossible may yet turn to being improbable. And who's to say then that we may not see a deal; albeit the same one that was previously rejected back in February 2018.
That's still a very big if though.
