Reuters latest poll showed
- U.S. economic growth forecast to average 2.8 percent in 2018, its fastest pace in three years
- forecast to lose some momentum next year, averaging 2.5 percent, slowing further to 1.8 percent in 2020
- likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months, the median of over 70 economists who answered an additional question was 15 percent, around where it has been over the last few years. But that probability doubled to 31 percent over the next two years, with the most pessimistic call at 70 percent.
- "The risk of a recession really picks up after a year, or sometime in 2020 because that is when you start to see the fiscal stimulus start to fade," said Joseph Song, senior U.S. economist at BofAML. "That is when you return to trend or potential growth, which is below 2 percent, and if you get some sort of a negative shock - whether it is a normal oil shock, or a dollar shock - then you start to see growth get hurt and potentially turn negative".
Fed to raise rates in June, according to all but one of 110 economists polled
- Two more hikes will follow this year, taking the fed funds rate to 2.25-2.50 percent, according to the median and a majority of respondents
Inflation expectations were unchanged compared with the previous poll
- The core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, was expected to reach 2.1 percent in the third quarter and level out to average slightly above that at 2.2 percent next year.
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Reuters poll of over 100 economists taken May 16-24
