What are the odds of a hike?

Fed:

  • Aug 1 - 2.3%

  • Sept 26 - 78%

ECB:

  • July 27 - neglible

  • June 2019 - 22%

BOE:

  • Aug 2 - 85% (vs 89% before today's inflation data)

  • 13% chance of a second hike before year end

BOC:

  • Sept 5 - 7.5%

  • Oct 24 - 50%

RBA:

  • 9.5% chance of a hike before year end

RBNZ:

  • 6.5% chance of a cut before year end

BOJ:

  • 15% chance of a 10 bps hike before year end