Earlier from Citi on the European Central Bank

More, this via ABN:

We expect a 10bp cut in all of the ECB's main policy rates in September

  • second 10bp reduction in Q1 2020

After the June meeting Draghi was explicit that the ECB was willing to cut policy rates

  • as well as re-starting QE
  • and strengthening forward guidance
  • At the ECB Forum in Sintra Draghi emphasised that a package of measures had positive re-enforcing effects in 2014-2015, and we think it may go for the same approach this time around

ABN on the July meeting:

  • we think the Governing Council will decide to change its forward guidance on policy rates to explicitly hint at the possibility of rate cuts

Further ahead:

  • By December, we expect the ECB to announce a EUR 630bn QE package, to be implemented for 9-months from January 2020 at a pace of EUR 70bn per month.
Earlier from Citi on the European Central Bank