The Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting for 13 November 2019. Announcement due at 0100GMT.
- Accompanied by the latest Monetary Policy Statement
- And followed by the media conference with Governor Orr at 0200GMT.
Previews already posted:
- Westpac change its RBNZ call for tomorrow - now forecast a rate cut
- RBNZ 'shadow board' are divided on where cash rate should be, 'increased skew towards a higher OCR'
- NZD traders heads up - RBNZ meet this week - most analysts expect a rate cut
Greg's latest update is here:
Some final quickie previews.
Via WPAC:
- widely expected to announce a 25bp reduction in the OCR to 0.75%
- Key for markets will be forward guidance signals (via language and OCR forecast).
Via BNZ:
- most economists are picking a 25bps rate cut
- the market sees the same risk
- there is always the chance that the committee errs on the side of common sense and public opinion and leaves the OCR unchanged
- Our business contacts continue to point to the futility of further rate cuts, and the 50bps August cut seemingly had a negative impact on confidence.
- We'd see a rate cut having a small downward impact on short-end rates and NZD and much less of an impact at the longer end of the curve, if any.
- The NZD looks significantly oversold against our short-term fair value model, so the removal of this risk event could easily support the currency once the dust settles. A no-change decision could see rates shift higher by 10-15bps, led by the front-end of the curve, while the NZD would clearly strengthen.
