The Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy announcement is at 2100GMT on Wednesday 26 September (Thursday NZ time)
Earlier previews can be found here:
- RBNZ monetary policy meeting this week - preview
- NZD traders - preview of the RBNZ meeting this week
- NZD traders - the RBNZ meet next week, no change expected
- NZD traders - An early preview of the RBNZ meeting next week (and where to for the NZD)
- Ahead of the RBNZ meeting - Shadow Board recommends 'on hold'
Preview via ASB (this an in brief one)
- After surprising the market with a more dovish August assessment, we expect the RBNZ to stick to the script, commit to leaving the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold into 2020, and signal that the direction of the next OCR move could be up or down. The economy has a considerably stronger starting point for economic activity than the RBNZ had assumed.
- However, the downward risk profile will likely prompt a guarded policy assessment, with the RBNZ continuing to dangle the carrot of a lower OCR to keep overall monetary conditions accommodative.
- We remain constructive on the domestic outlook and expect inflationary pressures to surface more quickly than the RBNZ asserts.
- The hurdle to an OCR cut remains high in our view and we expect the next move to be a hike (early 2020). However, if significant downside risks do crystalise, we are in little doubt that the RBNZ would follow through and cut the OCR.
