The fall below the low from yesterday did not solcit momentum selling
The USDJPY has tested the 100 hour MA on 4 separate hourly bars over the last 30 or so hours of trading. Each of those tests have found sellers against the MA. That MA comes in at 108.085 currently. A lid on rallies is established. It will take a move above the MA level to change that bias.
Admittedly, there has been a limit to the selling pressure. Yesterday the low reached 107.782. That move took the price below the 100 day moving average and 200 hour moving average , but momentum could not be sustained .
Today, the low reached a lower level at 107.76, and once again below its 200 hour moving average and 100 day moving average . However, that move also failed to solicit more downside momentum as well. UGH (for the shorts at least).
With limited downside momentum on the break, the sellers turned back to buyers, and we are now seeing the price trade back toward the 108.00 level and back above its 100 day moving average at 107.87 and 200 hour moving average of 107.952. UGH again.
What now?
I would continue to respect the 100 day moving average on the downside. Move below, and we should see a more bearish bias.
On the topside the 100 hour moving average is the key level to get above (and stay above) for the buyers.
PS. For the week (see daily chart below), the price was able to extend above its 50% retracement 108.413 on its way to a high at 108.471, but that too could not sustain upside momentum.
