Coming up on 20 June 2019 is the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee decision.

Some thoughts on what to expect.

Via Citi:

  • The BOE raised GDP expectations across the forecast horizon earlier. A Brexit deal (or longer extension) is a likely precondition to any hike in 2019. However, the political backdrop remains the biggest risk to GBP
  • We no longer see a Bank Rate hike in August or indeed this year as likely, as no-deal could become a bigger risk quickly, with the dovish wind blowing through global monetary policy. This will likely be GBP-negative

Via Rabobank

  • vote is likely to be unanimous
  • even as a number of influential MPC members have made some relatively hawkish speeches recently
  • hawks are focusing on decent wage growth amid low unemployment, but the warnings with regards to rate increases are falling on deaf ears
  • The downside risks resulting from Brexit and trade uncertainties outweigh the upside risks of slightly elevated domestic price pressures
  • We forecast no rate hikes for this year and next

Earlier: