A look at US 10-year yields
US 10-year yields are up 4 basis points today to 2.686%. It's a relatively big move and comes despite US stock markets falling 0.6%.
The signal from today's move is that the Fed might shift back to something more aggressive if the US and China can strike a trade deal.
On the chart, the decline since early November is all about the Fed shift to the sidelines and worries about a recession or slow growth abroad.
Technically, the February pattern is a triple bottom at 2.61% but since December there is also a downtrend and it was breached today. We're at the point where there's going to be a break higher or lower and I suggest watching closely because the results are going to be critical for a number of asset classes.
