It's a good time to use the Fibs
The Bank of Canada is done for the day after taking a hawkish turn by ending QE prematurely. Macklem didn't say much in the press conference but it's important to note what he didn't say. He didn't push back against market pricing for four rate hikes next year. In fact, the BOC moved up its estimate of the output gap closing from H2 2022 to the 'middle quarters' of 2022, meaning a hike could come as soon as the April 13 BOC.
Canadian 2-year yields soared as much as 24 bps to 1.147% but has since given a bit back to 1.066%, that's still nearly double the return of US 2s. That should provide a substantial tailwind for CAD.
In the short term though, the US dollar is bid on a middling risk day and a nearly 2% drop in oil prices. That's balanced out the BOC and month-end flows could also be a factor, though they're often supportive for CAD around this time of the month on oil settlement.
Technicals are the spot to watch with the 38.2% retracement being tested now. If that cracks, it will need to hold 1.2382, which is the 61.8% level.
