Like the EURUSD but going the other direction

Like the EURUSD, the USDCHF is trending today (only down instead of up).

Like the EURUSD but going the other direction

Looking at the daily chart above, the price in trading last week moved above its 100 day moving average, but could not extend to the 200 day moving average target. When the price moved back below its 100 day moving average on Friday, buyers turned to sellers and the price has moved lower.

Today's move is the biggest downside move. The price fell below its 50% retracement of the 2020 trading range at 0.9730 (yesterday the 50% level held). We are now moving below a swing area of lows (see red numbered circles) and in the bottoming range for the pair. A move lower will look toward another swing area at 0.9645-587. The low for the year comes in at 0.96124.

Drilling to the 5-minute chart below, trends step lower. A proxy for the end of the trend (or when the trend waters become more muddy at least), is when the price extended above the 38.2%-50% corrections on (see yellow areas in the chart below). The current correction area comes in at 0.9700 to 0.97056 (given the recent low. If the price goes lower,extend the fibonacci).

If a trend leg has a correction move (in this case higher) above that area I like to say "the trend waters are getting muddy". It does not necessarily mean the directional trend is over, but it is a warning that buyers (in the USDCHF) are winning a little. Getting above the falling 100 bar moving average is another signal that the momentum is fading (the 100 bar moving average is currently at 0.97154).

USDCHF on the 5-minute chart is trending lower

For now, the sellers remain in firm control.