Moves away from 100 hour MA

The USDJPY is trading to a new session low. In the process, the pair is getting close to swing lows from October 22 of October 23 near 104.541. A move below that, then targets the low from October 22 the low from October 21 at 104.469 and 104.336 respectively.

Moves away from 100 hour MA

Risk now comes in at the 100 hour moving average at 104.738. The price tried to extend above that moving average in the late Asian session, only to fail once again. Yesterday and earlier today runs above the moving average line ultimately stalled. Yesterday the high price stalled near the 38.2% retracement at 105.011 (and below the falling 200 hour MA - green line). That helped to keep the sellers more in control (the 38.2% is the minimum target for buyers to get and stay above. That try failed).

Taking a broader look at the daily chart, the sellers remain more in control with lower highs and the price a good ways away from its 100 day moving average (blue line in the chart below). T 105.015 to 105.293 area is a swing area to stay below, and tilts the bias more to the downside from a longer term perspective.

On the downside the swing low from the end of July at 104.18 and the failed break of that low in September that took the price to 103.995 are obvious targets to get and stay below.

USDJPY on the daily chart

In the forex, the snapshot of the major currencies has the pairs getting even more scrunched together. The NZD remains the strongest, while the USD is now the weakest.

The USD is the weakest of the major currencies